Analysts Are Updating Their Duell Oyj (HEL:DUELL) Estimates After Its Second-Quarter Results

Shareholders of Duell Oyj (HEL:DUELL) will be pleased this week, given that the stock price is up 18% to €0.035 following its latest second-quarter results. Revenues beat expectations, coming in 8.7% ahead of forecasts, and the company broke even on a statutory earnings per share (EPS) level. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

See our latest analysis for Duell Oyj

Taking into account the latest results, Duell Oyj's three analysts currently expect revenues in 2024 to be €123.9m, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Per-share statutory losses are expected to explode, reaching €0.0015 per share. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of €128.2m and earnings per share (EPS) of €0.075 in 2024. The analysts have made an abrupt about-face on Duell Oyj, administering a minor downgrade to to revenue forecasts and slashing the earnings outlook from a profit to loss.

There was no major change to the consensus price target of €0.53, signalling that the business is performing roughly in line with expectations, despite lower earnings per share forecasts. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Duell Oyj analyst has a price target of €1.50 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at €0.04. We would probably assign less value to the analyst forecasts in this situation, because such a wide range of estimates could imply that the future of this business is difficult to value accurately. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's clear from the latest estimates that Duell Oyj's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 1.9% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 1.4% over the past year. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 13% per year. It seems obvious that, while the future growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, Duell Oyj is expected to grow slower than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest low-light for us was that the forecasts for Duell Oyj dropped from profits to a loss next year. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at €0.53, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Duell Oyj analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Before you take the next step you should know about the 4 warning signs for Duell Oyj (1 doesn't sit too well with us!) that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.