Results: Atria Oyj Exceeded Expectations And The Consensus Has Updated Its Estimates

Investors in Atria Oyj (HEL:ATRAV) had a good week, as its shares rose 9.8% to close at €11.25 following the release of its third-quarter results. Revenues were €439m, approximately in line with whatthe analysts expected, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) crushed expectations, coming in at €0.65, an impressive 63% ahead of estimates. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Atria Oyj after the latest results.

View our latest analysis for Atria Oyj

After the latest results, the dual analysts covering Atria Oyj are now predicting revenues of €1.81b in 2025. If met, this would reflect a satisfactory 3.3% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Atria Oyj is also expected to turn profitable, with statutory earnings of €1.49 per share. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of €1.81b and earnings per share (EPS) of €1.32 in 2025. There was no real change to the revenue estimates, but the analysts do seem more bullish on earnings, given the decent improvement in earnings per share expectations following these results.

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of €13.00, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that Atria Oyj's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 2.6% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 4.7% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 4.8% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Atria Oyj is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Atria Oyj's earnings potential next year. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at €13.00, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At least one analyst has provided forecasts out to 2026, which can be seen for free on our platform here.

Before you take the next step you should know about the 1 warning sign for Atria Oyj that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.