Valmet Oyj Just Missed EPS By 23%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Last week, you might have seen that Valmet Oyj (HEL:VALMT) released its quarterly result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 2.9% to €23.60 in the past week. Statutory earnings per share fell badly short of expectations, coming in at €0.37, some 23% below analyst forecasts, although revenues were okay, approximately in line with analyst estimates at €1.3b. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for Valmet Oyj

Following last week's earnings report, Valmet Oyj's seven analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be €5.39b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to bounce 29% to €2.00. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of €5.43b and earnings per share (EPS) of €2.06 in 2025. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at €30.56, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Valmet Oyj, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at €42.00 and the most bearish at €21.00 per share. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that Valmet Oyj's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 0.8% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 11% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 3.6% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Valmet Oyj is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Valmet Oyj. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Valmet Oyj analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also view our analysis of Valmet Oyj's balance sheet, and whether we think Valmet Oyj is carrying too much debt, for free on our platform here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.