Stock Analysis

Despite the downward trend in earnings at Ponsse Oyj (HEL:PON1V) the stock grows 6.8%, bringing three-year gains to 28%

HLSE:PON1V
Source: Shutterstock

By buying an index fund, investors can approximate the average market return. But if you choose individual stocks with prowess, you can make superior returns. For example, Ponsse Oyj (HEL:PON1V) shareholders have seen the share price rise 20% over three years, well in excess of the market decline (6.6%, not including dividends).

The past week has proven to be lucrative for Ponsse Oyj investors, so let's see if fundamentals drove the company's three-year performance.

To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

During the three years of share price growth, Ponsse Oyj actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) drop 6.9% per year.

This means it's unlikely the market is judging the company based on earnings growth. Since the change in EPS doesn't seem to correlate with the change in share price, it's worth taking a look at other metrics.

The modest 1.7% dividend yield is unlikely to be propping up the share price. It may well be that Ponsse Oyj revenue growth rate of 4.6% over three years has convinced shareholders to believe in a brighter future. In that case, the company may be sacrificing current earnings per share to drive growth, and maybe shareholder's faith in better days ahead will be rewarded.

You can see below how earnings and revenue have changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
HLSE:PON1V Earnings and Revenue Growth June 20th 2025

We know that Ponsse Oyj has improved its bottom line lately, but what does the future have in store? This free report showing analyst forecasts should help you form a view on Ponsse Oyj

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What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. We note that for Ponsse Oyj the TSR over the last 3 years was 28%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

It's good to see that Ponsse Oyj has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 20% in the last twelve months. And that does include the dividend. That's better than the annualised return of 5% over half a decade, implying that the company is doing better recently. In the best case scenario, this may hint at some real business momentum, implying that now could be a great time to delve deeper. Is Ponsse Oyj cheap compared to other companies? These 3 valuation measures might help you decide.

For those who like to find winning investments this free list of undervalued companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Finnish exchanges.

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Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

About HLSE:PON1V

Ponsse Oyj

Operates as manufacturer of cut-to-length forest machines Nordic and Baltic countries, Central and Southern Europe, South America and North America, Asia, Australia, and Africa.

Flawless balance sheet with proven track record.

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