Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. Importantly, Grenergy Renovables, S.A. (BME:GRE) does carry debt. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?
When Is Debt Dangerous?
Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.
Check out our latest analysis for Grenergy Renovables
What Is Grenergy Renovables's Net Debt?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of June 2023 Grenergy Renovables had €657.3m of debt, an increase on €487.4m, over one year. On the flip side, it has €123.2m in cash leading to net debt of about €534.1m.
A Look At Grenergy Renovables' Liabilities
We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Grenergy Renovables had liabilities of €361.8m falling due within a year, and liabilities of €491.6m due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of €123.2m and €114.1m worth of receivables due within a year. So it has liabilities totalling €616.1m more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
This deficit is considerable relative to its market capitalization of €620.4m, so it does suggest shareholders should keep an eye on Grenergy Renovables' use of debt. Should its lenders demand that it shore up the balance sheet, shareholders would likely face severe dilution.
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).
Weak interest cover of 1.6 times and a disturbingly high net debt to EBITDA ratio of 10.5 hit our confidence in Grenergy Renovables like a one-two punch to the gut. The debt burden here is substantial. Even more troubling is the fact that Grenergy Renovables actually let its EBIT decrease by 4.5% over the last year. If it keeps going like that paying off its debt will be like running on a treadmill -- a lot of effort for not much advancement. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Grenergy Renovables can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. Over the last three years, Grenergy Renovables saw substantial negative free cash flow, in total. While that may be a result of expenditure for growth, it does make the debt far more risky.
Our View
To be frank both Grenergy Renovables's net debt to EBITDA and its track record of converting EBIT to free cash flow make us rather uncomfortable with its debt levels. And even its level of total liabilities fails to inspire much confidence. Taking into account all the aforementioned factors, it looks like Grenergy Renovables has too much debt. That sort of riskiness is ok for some, but it certainly doesn't float our boat. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. Case in point: We've spotted 4 warning signs for Grenergy Renovables you should be aware of, and 2 of them are potentially serious.
At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About BME:GRE
High growth potential with proven track record.