Stock Analysis

Despite delivering investors losses of 50% over the past 5 years, Audax Renovables (BME:ADX) has been growing its earnings

BME:ADX
Source: Shutterstock

Audax Renovables, S.A. (BME:ADX) shareholders should be happy to see the share price up 23% in the last quarter. But if you look at the last five years the returns have not been good. In fact, the share price is down 50%, which falls well short of the return you could get by buying an index fund.

Although the past week has been more reassuring for shareholders, they're still in the red over the last five years, so let's see if the underlying business has been responsible for the decline.

See our latest analysis for Audax Renovables

While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

During the unfortunate half decade during which the share price slipped, Audax Renovables actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) improve by 5.6% per year. So it doesn't seem like EPS is a great guide to understanding how the market is valuing the stock. Or possibly, the market was previously very optimistic, so the stock has disappointed, despite improving EPS.

Because of the sharp contrast between the EPS growth rate and the share price growth, we're inclined to look to other metrics to understand the changing market sentiment around the stock.

Revenue is actually up 26% over the time period. So it seems one might have to take closer look at the fundamentals to understand why the share price languishes. After all, there may be an opportunity.

The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
BME:ADX Earnings and Revenue Growth January 25th 2024

We know that Audax Renovables has improved its bottom line lately, but what does the future have in store? You can see what analysts are predicting for Audax Renovables in this interactive graph of future profit estimates.

A Different Perspective

Audax Renovables shareholders are down 2.2% for the year, but the market itself is up 14%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. However, the loss over the last year isn't as bad as the 8% per annum loss investors have suffered over the last half decade. We'd need to see some sustained improvements in the key metrics before we could muster much enthusiasm. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with Audax Renovables , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

We will like Audax Renovables better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of growing companies with considerable, recent, insider buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Spanish exchanges.

Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.

Find out whether Audax Renovables is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

View the Free Analysis

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.