ENCE Energía y Celulosa, S.A. Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

It's shaping up to be a tough period for ENCE Energía y Celulosa, S.A. (BME:ENC), which a week ago released some disappointing quarterly results that could have a notable impact on how the market views the stock. It wasn't a great result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at €220m, statutory earnings missed forecasts by an incredible 54%, coming in at just €0.06 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for ENCE Energía y Celulosa

Following last week's earnings report, ENCE Energía y Celulosa's seven analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be €890.9m, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to climb 20% to €0.22. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of €892.5m and earnings per share (EPS) of €0.22 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of €4.17, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values ENCE Energía y Celulosa at €5.10 per share, while the most bearish prices it at €3.45. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that ENCE Energía y Celulosa's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 1.0% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 4.9% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 4.4% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than ENCE Energía y Celulosa.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for ENCE Energía y Celulosa going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for ENCE Energía y Celulosa (of which 2 shouldn't be ignored!) you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.