Stock Analysis

Here's Why Ercros (BME:ECR) Has A Meaningful Debt Burden

BME:ECR
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David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the permanent loss of capital.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. We can see that Ercros, S.A. (BME:ECR) does use debt in its business. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.

Why Does Debt Bring Risk?

Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.

Check out our latest analysis for Ercros

What Is Ercros's Debt?

You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of June 2023 Ercros had €130.5m of debt, an increase on €109.2m, over one year. However, because it has a cash reserve of €32.6m, its net debt is less, at about €97.9m.

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BME:ECR Debt to Equity History November 10th 2023

A Look At Ercros' Liabilities

According to the last reported balance sheet, Ercros had liabilities of €183.2m due within 12 months, and liabilities of €170.4m due beyond 12 months. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of €32.6m as well as receivables valued at €113.1m due within 12 months. So its liabilities total €207.9m more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.

This deficit is considerable relative to its market capitalization of €244.1m, so it does suggest shareholders should keep an eye on Ercros' use of debt. This suggests shareholders would be heavily diluted if the company needed to shore up its balance sheet in a hurry.

We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.

Ercros has a low net debt to EBITDA ratio of only 1.4. And its EBIT easily covers its interest expense, being 11.5 times the size. So you could argue it is no more threatened by its debt than an elephant is by a mouse. It is just as well that Ercros's load is not too heavy, because its EBIT was down 50% over the last year. When a company sees its earnings tank, it can sometimes find its relationships with its lenders turn sour. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Ercros's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.

Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. Over the most recent three years, Ercros recorded free cash flow worth 58% of its EBIT, which is around normal, given free cash flow excludes interest and tax. This free cash flow puts the company in a good position to pay down debt, when appropriate.

Our View

Ercros's struggle to grow its EBIT had us second guessing its balance sheet strength, but the other data-points we considered were relatively redeeming. In particular, its interest cover was re-invigorating. Taking the abovementioned factors together we do think Ercros's debt poses some risks to the business. While that debt can boost returns, we think the company has enough leverage now. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. Case in point: We've spotted 3 warning signs for Ercros you should be aware of, and 1 of them is significant.

Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.

Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.

Discover if Ercros might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.