Mapfre, S.A. (BME:MAP) Third-Quarter Results: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For Next Year

It's been a good week for Mapfre, S.A. (BME:MAP) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest quarterly results, and the shares gained 4.0% to €2.62. The result was fairly weak overall, with revenues of €6.5b being 7.9% less than what the analysts had been modelling. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Mapfre after the latest results.

See our latest analysis for Mapfre

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the eight analysts covering Mapfre, is for revenues of €29.2b in 2025. This implies a small 6.1% reduction in Mapfre's revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to ascend 14% to €0.31. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of €29.2b and earnings per share (EPS) of €0.31 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at €2.62. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Mapfre analyst has a price target of €3.20 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at €2.07. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Mapfre's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 4.9% annualised decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 7.2% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 4.9% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that Mapfre's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at €2.62, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Mapfre. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Mapfre going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

It might also be worth considering whether Mapfre's debt load is appropriate, using our debt analysis tools on the Simply Wall St platform, here.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.