Mapfre (BME:MAP) Margin Improvement To 4.8% Challenges Persistent Bearish Narratives

Mapfre (BME:MAP) has wrapped up FY 2025 with fourth quarter revenue of €4.4b and net income of €303.6m, adding to a trailing twelve month performance that includes revenue of €23.5b and net income of €1.1b alongside EPS of €0.37. Over the past year the company has seen revenue move from €29.2b to €23.5b on a trailing basis, while net income has shifted from €967.5m to €1.1b and EPS has gone from €0.32 to €0.37. This sets up a results season in which investors will be weighing that earnings profile against revenue trends. With net profit margins running at 4.8% versus 3.3% a year earlier, the latest numbers put profitability in sharper focus as you think about the balance between growth and income.

See our full analysis for Mapfre.

With the headline figures in place, the next step is to line these results up against the most widely held narratives about Mapfre to see which stories the numbers support and which ones they start to question.

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Margins Firm Up With 4.8% Net Profit

• On a trailing basis, Mapfre earned €1.1b on €23.5b of revenue, which works out to a 4.8% net profit margin compared with 3.3% a year earlier.
• Supporters on the bullish side point to this higher margin as evidence that underwriting and cost control are moving in the right direction. However, the improvement sits alongside only moderate forecast earnings growth of 4.13% per year, which means:
  • the recent 17.1% earnings growth over the last year and 13.8% per year over five years look stronger than the forward growth assumptions tied to their thesis
  • investors who agree with the bullish view still need to decide how much weight to give the current 4.8% margin if future growth settles closer to those lower forecast rates

Bulls argue that the latest margin profile could be the start of a more profitable phase for Mapfre, not just a one off. 🐂 Mapfre Bull Case

P/E Of 10.4x Versus Peers At 13x

• Mapfre trades on a trailing P/E of 10.4x, compared with a peer average of 13x and a European Insurance industry average of 12.8x, while the current share price of €3.82 sits well below the DCF fair value of about €7.90.
• Critics in the bearish camp argue that exposure to slower growing markets, climate risks and pressure on investment returns justify a lower multiple. Yet the combination of a 4.8% net margin and 17.1% earnings growth over the last year creates tension with that view because:
  • those profitability and growth figures are being valued at a discount to both peers and the DCF fair value, which indicates the market is already pricing in a fair amount of caution
  • at the same time, forecast earnings growth of 4.13% per year and revenue growth of 3.5% per year sit below the wider Spanish market, which lines up with the bears’ concern about more modest expansion

Skeptics suggest the current discount could be justified if those lower growth forecasts play out, but the earnings track record tells a stronger story than a simple low P/E suggests. 🐻 Mapfre Bear Case

Dividend Yield At 4.31% Supports Income Angle

• The trailing dividend yield is 4.31%, backed by trailing 12 month net income of €1.1b and earnings per share of €0.37, so recent payouts are coming from a business that has reported both profit and positive EPS.
• The consensus narrative highlights Mapfre’s capital strength and diversification as key supports for steady earnings, and these results connect to that argument because:
  • net income has moved from €967.5m to €1.1b over the trailing period, which aligns with the view that earnings have held up while the company maintains a reported solvency ratio in the 200% area in the narrative
  • forecast revenue growth of 2.7% to 3.5% per year and stable earnings expectations around €1.1b sit comfortably with the idea of a business geared more toward income and resilience than rapid expansion

Next Steps

To see how these results tie into long-term growth, risks, and valuation, check out the full range of community narratives for Mapfre on Simply Wall St. Add the company to your watchlist or portfolio so you'll be alerted when the story evolves.

See the numbers differently? If this data leads you to a different conclusion, shape that view into a clear story in just a few minutes and Do it your way.

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 5 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding Mapfre.

See What Else Is Out There

Mapfre’s forecast earnings growth of 4.13% per year and revenue growth of up to 3.5% per year indicate relatively modest expansion compared with broader market expectations.

If that slower growth profile does not align with your preferences, you may wish to explore our screener containing 553 high quality undiscovered gems to find companies where the market may not yet fully appreciate the story.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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