There May Be Reason For Hope In NTG Nordic Transport Group's (CPH:NTG) Disappointing Earnings

The market for NTG Nordic Transport Group A/S' (CPH:NTG) shares didn't move much after it posted weak earnings recently. We did some digging, and we believe the earnings are stronger than they seem.

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A Closer Look At NTG Nordic Transport Group's Earnings

In high finance, the key ratio used to measure how well a company converts reported profits into free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio (from cashflow). To get the accrual ratio we first subtract FCF from profit for a period, and then divide that number by the average operating assets for the period. This ratio tells us how much of a company's profit is not backed by free cashflow.

Therefore, it's actually considered a good thing when a company has a negative accrual ratio, but a bad thing if its accrual ratio is positive. While it's not a problem to have a positive accrual ratio, indicating a certain level of non-cash profits, a high accrual ratio is arguably a bad thing, because it indicates paper profits are not matched by cash flow. To quote a 2014 paper by Lewellen and Resutek, "firms with higher accruals tend to be less profitable in the future".

For the year to June 2025, NTG Nordic Transport Group had an accrual ratio of -0.21. That implies it has very good cash conversion, and that its earnings in the last year actually significantly understate its free cash flow. In fact, it had free cash flow of kr.633m in the last year, which was a lot more than its statutory profit of kr.207.0m. NTG Nordic Transport Group's free cash flow improved over the last year, which is generally good to see.

That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.

Our Take On NTG Nordic Transport Group's Profit Performance

Happily for shareholders, NTG Nordic Transport Group produced plenty of free cash flow to back up its statutory profit numbers. Because of this, we think NTG Nordic Transport Group's underlying earnings potential is as good as, or possibly even better, than the statutory profit makes it seem! Unfortunately, though, its earnings per share actually fell back over the last year. The goal of this article has been to assess how well we can rely on the statutory earnings to reflect the company's potential, but there is plenty more to consider. So if you'd like to dive deeper into this stock, it's crucial to consider any risks it's facing. For example, we've discovered 2 warning signs that you should run your eye over to get a better picture of NTG Nordic Transport Group.

This note has only looked at a single factor that sheds light on the nature of NTG Nordic Transport Group's profit. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with significant insider holdings to be useful.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.