Earnings Beat: Trifork Holding AG Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Models

Trifork Holding AG (CPH:TRIFOR) just released its full-year report and things are looking bullish. The company beat both earnings and revenue forecasts, with revenue of €187m, some 2.0% above estimates, and statutory earnings per share (EPS) coming in at €0.77, 27% ahead of expectations. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for Trifork Holding

Following the latest results, Trifork Holding's four analysts are now forecasting revenues of €208.1m in 2023. This would be a decent 12% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to fall 12% to €0.68 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of €202.8m and earnings per share (EPS) of €0.70 in 2023. So it's pretty clear consensus is mixed on Trifork Holding after the latest results; whilethe analysts lifted revenue numbers, they also administered a minor downgrade to per-share earnings expectations.

There's been no major changes to the price target of kr.197, suggesting that the impact of higher forecast sales and lower earnings won't result in a meaningful change to the business' valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Trifork Holding at kr.220 per share, while the most bearish prices it at kr.179. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that Trifork Holding's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 12% annualised growth rate until the end of 2023 being well below the historical 20% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 1.7% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while Trifork Holding's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Happily, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and are forecasting revenues to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at kr.197, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Trifork Holding going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Trifork Holding that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.