Stock Analysis

Investors in Novo Nordisk (CPH:NOVO B) have seen enviable returns of 440% over the past five years

CPSE:NOVO B
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Buying shares in the best businesses can build meaningful wealth for you and your family. And we've seen some truly amazing gains over the years. To wit, the Novo Nordisk A/S (CPH:NOVO B) share price has soared 398% over five years. If that doesn't get you thinking about long term investing, we don't know what will.

Let's take a look at the underlying fundamentals over the longer term, and see if they've been consistent with shareholders returns.

View our latest analysis for Novo Nordisk

While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

Over half a decade, Novo Nordisk managed to grow its earnings per share at 21% a year. This EPS growth is lower than the 38% average annual increase in the share price. So it's fair to assume the market has a higher opinion of the business than it did five years ago. And that's hardly shocking given the track record of growth.

You can see below how EPS has changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-per-share-growth
CPSE:NOVO B Earnings Per Share Growth August 29th 2024

We know that Novo Nordisk has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? You could check out this free report showing analyst revenue forecasts.

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. As it happens, Novo Nordisk's TSR for the last 5 years was 440%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

We're pleased to report that Novo Nordisk shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 42% over one year. That's including the dividend. Since the one-year TSR is better than the five-year TSR (the latter coming in at 40% per year), it would seem that the stock's performance has improved in recent times. Given the share price momentum remains strong, it might be worth taking a closer look at the stock, lest you miss an opportunity. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Novo Nordisk better, we need to consider many other factors. Like risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Novo Nordisk (of which 1 is a bit concerning!) you should know about.

For those who like to find winning investments this free list of undervalued companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Danish exchanges.

Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.

Discover if Novo Nordisk might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.