Earnings Update: Jyske Bank A/S (CPH:JYSK) Just Reported Its First-Quarter Results And Analysts Are Updating Their Forecasts

Jyske Bank A/S (CPH:JYSK) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 5.3% to kr.542 in the week after its latest quarterly results. It was a credible result overall, with revenues of kr.3.4b and statutory earnings per share of kr.19.05 both in line with analyst estimates, showing that Jyske Bank is executing in line with expectations. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for Jyske Bank

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the four analysts covering Jyske Bank, is for revenues of kr.13.5b in 2024. This implies an uncomfortable 8.3% reduction in Jyske Bank's revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to drop 12% to kr.78.18 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of kr.13.6b and earnings per share (EPS) of kr.78.76 in 2024. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of kr.629, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Jyske Bank at kr.670 per share, while the most bearish prices it at kr.590. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Jyske Bank is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 11% annualised decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 13% over the last five years. Yet aggregate analyst estimates for other companies in the industry suggest that industry revenues are forecast to decline 0.7% per year. The forecasts do look bearish for Jyske Bank, since they're expecting it to shrink faster than the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. The consensus also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it is performing in line with expectations. Plus, our data suggests that Jyske Bank is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at kr.629, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Jyske Bank. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Jyske Bank going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It is also worth noting that we have found 1 warning sign for Jyske Bank that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.