Kelsian Group Limited

DB:CY4 Stock Report

Market Cap: €449.0m

Kelsian Group Valuation

Is CY4 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

0/6

Valuation Score 0/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of CY4 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Discounted Cash Flow
Simply Wall St
€1.38
Fair Value
17.4% overvalued intrinsic discount
8
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: CY4 (€1.62) is trading above our estimate of fair value (€1.38)

Significantly Below Fair Value: CY4 is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for CY4?

Key metric: As CY4 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for CY4. This is calculated by dividing CY4's market cap by their current earnings.
What is CY4's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio15.5x
EarningsAU$49.99m
Market CapAU$775.46m

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does CY4's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for CY4 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average12.3x
SIX2 Sixt
15.4x16.3%€3.4b
3WB Waberer's International Nyrt
11.8xn/a€190.5m
EUK3 EUROKAI GmbH KGaA
12.4x13.5%€479.4m
TGHN Logwin
9.5x-7.7%€673.7m
CY4 Kelsian Group
15.5x10.9%€775.5m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: CY4 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.5x) compared to the peer average (12.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does CY4's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Transportation Industry?

3 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
CY4 15.5xIndustry Avg. 13.9xNo. of Companies7PE01632486480+
3 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: CY4 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.5x) compared to the European Transportation industry average (13.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is CY4's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

CY4 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio15.5x
Fair PE Ratio8.1x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: CY4 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.1x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst CY4 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€1.62
€2.56
+58.0%
18.4%€3.32€1.90n/a8
Mar ’26€1.81
€2.63
+45.2%
20.7%€3.66€1.92n/a8
Feb ’26€2.24
€3.15
+40.7%
9.3%€3.68€2.71n/a8
Jan ’26€2.12
€3.21
+51.3%
9.3%€3.75€2.76n/a8
Dec ’25€2.32
€3.21
+38.3%
9.3%€3.75€2.76n/a8
Nov ’25€2.24
€3.19
+42.4%
9.4%€3.69€2.72n/a9
Oct ’25€2.28
€3.26
+42.9%
11.7%€4.02€2.71n/a10
Sep ’25€2.04
€3.40
+66.5%
14.3%€4.30€2.76n/a10
Aug ’25€2.80
€4.38
+56.4%
8.5%€5.04€3.73n/a10
Jul ’25€2.80
€4.29
+53.3%
11.4%€5.43€3.62n/a11
Jun ’25€2.82
€4.29
+52.3%
11.4%€5.43€3.62n/a11
May ’25€3.02
€4.26
+41.1%
11.7%€5.34€3.57n/a10
Apr ’25€3.44
€4.22
+22.6%
12.1%€5.36€3.58n/a11
Mar ’25€3.62
€4.21
+16.3%
12.5%€5.32€3.55€1.8110
Feb ’25€4.14
€4.34
+4.9%
9.8%€5.24€3.77€2.2411
Jan ’25€4.26
€4.46
+4.8%
12.1%€5.54€3.77€2.1211
Dec ’24€3.92
€4.46
+13.9%
12.1%€5.54€3.77€2.3211
Nov ’24€3.56
€4.46
+25.2%
12.4%€5.58€3.76€2.2411
Oct ’24€3.44
€4.42
+28.6%
12.9%€5.55€3.74€2.2811
Sep ’24€3.74
€4.42
+18.3%
12.9%€5.55€3.74€2.0411
Aug ’24€4.10
€4.75
+15.8%
15.1%€6.29€3.94€2.8011
Jul ’24€4.36
€4.74
+8.8%
16.7%€6.47€3.81€2.8011
Jun ’24€4.04
€4.73
+17.0%
17.2%€6.53€3.85€2.8210
May ’24€3.60
€4.79
+32.9%
16.9%€6.50€3.83€3.029
Apr ’24€3.54
€4.73
+33.6%
19.3%€6.53€3.30€3.449
Mar ’24€4.04
€4.74
+17.3%
16.2%€6.28€3.41€3.6210
Analyst Price Target
Consensus Narrative from 8 Analysts
€2.44
Fair Value
33.7% undervalued intrinsic discount
8
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/03/13 00:42
End of Day Share Price 2025/03/13 00:00
Earnings2024/12/31
Annual Earnings2024/06/30

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Kelsian Group Limited is covered by 14 analysts. 8 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Aryan NoroziBarrenjoey Markets Pty Limited
Nicholas McGarrigleBarrenjoey Markets Pty Limited
Piers FlanaganBarrenjoey Markets Pty Limited