Canadian National Railway Company

DB:CY2 Stock Report

Market Cap: €67.2b

Canadian National Railway Valuation

Is CY2 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of CY2 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: CY2 (€106.75) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€115.84)

Significantly Below Fair Value: CY2 is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for CY2?

Key metric: As CY2 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for CY2. This is calculated by dividing CY2's market cap by their current earnings.
What is CY2's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio18x
EarningsCA$5.43b
Market CapCA$97.74b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does CY2's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for CY2 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average19x
DHL Deutsche Post
12.6x9.0%€40.7b
HLAG Hapag-Lloyd
19.3x-8.9%€28.2b
CSX CSX
18.8x5.7%US$69.0b
NSC Norfolk Southern
25.2x12.9%US$60.8b
CY2 Canadian National Railway
18x3.9%€97.7b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: CY2 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18x) compared to the peer average (19x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does CY2's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Transportation Industry?

2 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
CY2 18.0xIndustry Avg. 11.9xNo. of Companies5PE01224364860+
2 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: CY2 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18x) compared to the European Transportation industry average (11.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is CY2's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

CY2 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio18x
Fair PE Ratio19.5x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: CY2 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (19.5x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst CY2 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€106.75
€118.86
+11.3%
5.8%€137.41€109.24n/a21
Nov ’25€99.54
€114.96
+15.5%
5.8%€132.90€105.65n/a21
Oct ’25€106.00
€116.63
+10.0%
6.7%€139.47€104.93n/a21
Sep ’25€106.15
€119.54
+12.6%
6.2%€140.28€105.54n/a21
Aug ’25€105.05
€119.54
+13.8%
6.2%€140.28€105.54n/a21
Jul ’25€109.40
€124.60
+13.9%
6.2%€142.57€107.27n/a22
Jun ’25€115.45
€124.13
+7.5%
6.3%€141.78€106.67n/a22
May ’25€114.00
€124.70
+9.4%
6.7%€142.89€107.51n/a22
Apr ’25€122.10
€122.76
+0.5%
7.5%€144.03€106.31n/a22
Mar ’25€120.20
€121.20
+0.8%
6.7%€144.51€106.66n/a22
Feb ’25€116.70
€120.61
+3.4%
6.9%€144.55€106.69n/a22
Jan ’25€114.00
€113.79
-0.2%
6.2%€133.38€103.97n/a22
Dec ’24€108.10
€112.63
+4.2%
6.1%€132.27€103.10n/a22
Nov ’24€100.80
€113.89
+13.0%
6.1%€133.55€103.42€99.5422
Oct ’24€102.80
€119.81
+16.6%
6.4%€140.24€106.41€106.0022
Sep ’24€104.90
€116.02
+10.6%
6.5%€135.47€102.80€106.1521
Aug ’24€108.60
€117.21
+7.9%
6.8%€137.25€104.14€105.0521
Jul ’24€111.00
€120.81
+8.8%
6.9%€138.29€104.41€109.4021
Jun ’24€106.90
€120.88
+13.1%
7.2%€137.85€104.07€115.4521
May ’24€108.10
€115.15
+6.5%
6.8%€127.54€100.31€114.0020
Apr ’24€108.46
€114.94
+6.0%
7.2%€128.57€100.83€122.1020
Mar ’24€108.24
€117.23
+8.3%
7.4%€130.95€99.93€120.2020
Feb ’24€108.62
€117.23
+7.9%
7.4%€130.95€99.93€116.7020
Jan ’24€112.16
€118.06
+5.3%
7.0%€131.59€100.42€114.0019
Dec ’23€123.84
€124.66
+0.7%
6.1%€136.72€107.74€108.1018
Nov ’23€119.50
€124.66
+4.3%
6.1%€136.72€107.74€100.8018

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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