Canadian National Railway Company

DB:CY2 Stock Report

Market Cap: €77.2b

Canadian National Railway Valuation

Is CY2 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

0/6

Valuation Score 0/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of CY2 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: CY2 (€120.1) is trading above our estimate of fair value (€105.03)

Significantly Below Fair Value: CY2 is trading above our estimate of fair value.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for CY2?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

CY2 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue7.9x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA14.9x
PEG Ratio7.8x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does CY2's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for CY2 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average17.1x
DHL Deutsche Post
12.4x8.3%€45.4b
HLAG Hapag-Lloyd
7.4x-35.3%€21.8b
CP Canadian Pacific Kansas City
28.7x9.8%CA$111.2b
CSX CSX
19.8x4.5%US$72.4b
CY2 Canadian National Railway
20.2x2.6%€113.8b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: CY2 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.2x) compared to the peer average (17.1x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does CY2's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Transportation Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a15.1%
n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPE048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a15.1%
n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: CY2 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.2x) compared to the Global Transportation industry average (16.1x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is CY2's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

CY2 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio20.2x
Fair PE Ratio18.2x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: CY2 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.2x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst CY2 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€120.10
€120.36
+0.2%
7.6%€142.58€105.23n/a21
Mar ’25€120.20
€121.04
+0.7%
6.8%€144.51€106.66n/a21
Feb ’25€116.70
€120.42
+3.2%
7.1%€144.55€106.69n/a21
Jan ’25€114.00
€114.10
+0.09%
6.2%€133.38€103.97n/a21
Dec ’24€108.10
€112.92
+4.5%
6.2%€132.27€103.10n/a21
Nov ’24€100.80
€114.19
+13.3%
6.1%€133.55€103.42n/a21
Oct ’24€102.80
€120.42
+17.1%
6.1%€140.24€106.41n/a21
Sep ’24€104.90
€116.65
+11.2%
6.2%€135.47€102.80n/a20
Aug ’24€108.60
€117.83
+8.5%
6.5%€137.25€104.14n/a20
Jul ’24€111.00
€121.45
+9.4%
6.6%€138.29€104.41n/a20
Jun ’24€106.90
€121.55
+13.7%
6.9%€137.85€104.07n/a20
May ’24€108.10
€115.76
+7.1%
6.5%€127.54€100.31n/a19
Apr ’24€108.46
€115.57
+6.6%
7.0%€128.57€100.83n/a19
Mar ’24€108.24
€117.89
+8.9%
7.1%€130.95€99.93€120.2019
Feb ’24€108.62
€117.89
+8.5%
7.1%€130.95€99.93€116.7019
Jan ’24€112.16
€118.06
+5.3%
7.0%€131.59€100.42€114.0019
Dec ’23€123.84
€124.66
+0.7%
6.1%€136.72€107.74€108.1018
Nov ’23€119.50
€124.66
+4.3%
6.1%€136.72€107.74€100.8018
Oct ’23€112.56
€123.57
+9.8%
6.7%€135.14€106.29€102.8017
Sep ’23€118.40
€124.49
+5.1%
6.5%€136.39€107.27€104.9017
Aug ’23€123.98
€123.40
-0.5%
6.7%€133.74€104.70€108.6017
Jul ’23€107.68
€122.02
+13.3%
6.8%€136.43€101.58€111.0018
Jun ’23€105.96
€123.52
+16.6%
6.6%€136.86€101.90€106.9018
May ’23€113.44
€123.52
+8.9%
6.7%€136.82€101.87€108.1018
Apr ’23€116.18
€119.46
+2.8%
6.9%€133.21€96.88€108.4619
Mar ’23€109.55
€115.99
+5.9%
7.0%€129.83€94.42€108.2418

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.


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