Norfolk Southern Corporation

NYSE:NSC Stock Report

Market Cap: US$58.8b

Norfolk Southern Valuation

Is NSC undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of NSC when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: NSC ($258.93) is trading above our estimate of fair value ($237.29)

Significantly Below Fair Value: NSC is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for NSC?

Key metric: As NSC is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for NSC. This is calculated by dividing NSC's market cap by their current earnings.
What is NSC's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio24.3x
EarningsUS$2.41b
Market CapUS$58.76b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does NSC's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for NSC vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average61.6x
CSX CSX
18.2x5.7%US$66.7b
UNP Union Pacific
21.3x7.2%US$141.4b
ODFL Old Dominion Freight Line
36.7x8.8%US$45.2b
DIDI.Y DiDi Global
170x45.5%US$23.2b
NSC Norfolk Southern
24.3x12.9%US$58.8b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: NSC is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (24.3x) compared to the peer average (61.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does NSC's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Transportation Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies available in this PE range
NSC 24.3xIndustry Avg. 31.3xNo. of Companies4PE01632486480+
0 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: NSC is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (24.3x) compared to the US Transportation industry average (31.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is NSC's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

NSC PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio24.3x
Fair PE Ratio22.4x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: NSC is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (24.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (22.4x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst NSC forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$258.93
US$275.76
+6.5%
10.4%US$316.00US$175.00n/a25
Nov ’25US$250.09
US$273.12
+9.2%
9.8%US$304.00US$175.00n/a25
Oct ’25US$248.14
US$265.21
+6.9%
8.9%US$292.00US$175.00n/a25
Sep ’25US$256.16
US$265.23
+3.5%
8.7%US$292.00US$175.00n/a25
Aug ’25US$246.46
US$264.59
+7.4%
8.9%US$292.00US$175.00n/a25
Jul ’25US$214.06
US$270.04
+26.2%
6.2%US$300.00US$233.00n/a23
Jun ’25US$224.80
US$270.34
+20.3%
6.2%US$300.00US$233.00n/a23
May ’25US$230.58
US$271.60
+17.8%
6.9%US$305.00US$233.00n/a24
Apr ’25US$252.00
US$261.87
+3.9%
8.0%US$305.00US$231.00n/a23
Mar ’25US$257.49
US$250.73
-2.6%
8.5%US$305.00US$207.00n/a24
Feb ’25US$255.23
US$241.56
-5.4%
9.0%US$272.00US$175.00n/a25
Jan ’25US$236.38
US$231.80
-1.9%
10.0%US$264.00US$170.00n/a25
Dec ’24US$226.47
US$227.32
+0.4%
9.4%US$264.00US$170.00n/a25
Nov ’24US$190.19
US$226.40
+19.0%
9.2%US$264.00US$170.00US$250.0925
Oct ’24US$196.93
US$248.48
+26.2%
8.3%US$280.00US$177.00US$248.1425
Sep ’24US$206.38
US$250.00
+21.1%
8.1%US$280.00US$177.00US$256.1626
Aug ’24US$233.97
US$249.19
+6.5%
8.2%US$280.00US$177.00US$246.4626
Jul ’24US$226.76
US$237.81
+4.9%
8.3%US$288.00US$174.00US$214.0626
Jun ’24US$212.21
US$237.96
+12.1%
8.3%US$288.00US$174.00US$224.8026
May ’24US$208.61
US$236.76
+13.5%
8.6%US$288.00US$174.00US$230.5825
Apr ’24US$212.00
US$247.68
+16.8%
8.7%US$286.00US$177.00US$252.0025
Mar ’24US$225.41
US$249.64
+10.7%
8.2%US$286.00US$177.00US$257.4925
Feb ’24US$248.79
US$250.76
+0.8%
8.5%US$286.00US$177.00US$255.2325
Jan ’24US$246.42
US$249.88
+1.4%
8.5%US$285.00US$177.00US$236.3824
Dec ’23US$256.36
US$246.96
-3.7%
8.5%US$285.00US$177.00US$226.4724
Nov ’23US$229.99
US$242.64
+5.5%
7.8%US$267.00US$177.00US$190.1925

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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