Norfolk Southern Corporation

NYSE:NSC Stock Report

Market Cap: US$52.2b

Norfolk Southern Valuation

Is NSC undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of NSC when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: NSC ($234.15) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($241.14)

Significantly Below Fair Value: NSC is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for NSC?

Key metric: As NSC is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for NSC. This is calculated by dividing NSC's market cap by their current earnings.
What is NSC's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio22x
EarningsUS$2.41b
Market CapUS$52.17b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does NSC's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for NSC vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average23.1x
CSX CSX
16.8x5.7%US$60.9b
UNP Union Pacific
20.7x7.0%US$135.3b
ODFL Old Dominion Freight Line
31.1x8.6%US$40.1b
DIDI.Y DiDi Global
23.7x35.5%US$22.9b
NSC Norfolk Southern
22x12.5%US$52.2b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: NSC is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (22x) compared to the peer average (23.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does NSC's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Transportation Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies available in this PE range
NSC 22.0xIndustry Avg. 28.4xNo. of Companies4PE01224364860+
0 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: NSC is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (22x) compared to the US Transportation industry average (27.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is NSC's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

NSC PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio22x
Fair PE Ratio21.9x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: NSC is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (22x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (21.9x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst NSC forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$234.15
US$276.84
+18.2%
10.6%US$320.00US$175.00n/a25
Dec ’25US$275.85
US$275.76
-0.03%
10.4%US$316.00US$175.00n/a25
Nov ’25US$250.09
US$273.12
+9.2%
9.8%US$304.00US$175.00n/a25
Oct ’25US$248.14
US$265.21
+6.9%
8.9%US$292.00US$175.00n/a25
Sep ’25US$256.16
US$265.23
+3.5%
8.7%US$292.00US$175.00n/a25
Aug ’25US$246.46
US$264.59
+7.4%
8.9%US$292.00US$175.00n/a25
Jul ’25US$214.06
US$270.04
+26.2%
6.2%US$300.00US$233.00n/a23
Jun ’25US$224.80
US$270.34
+20.3%
6.2%US$300.00US$233.00n/a23
May ’25US$230.58
US$271.60
+17.8%
6.9%US$305.00US$233.00n/a24
Apr ’25US$252.00
US$261.87
+3.9%
8.0%US$305.00US$231.00n/a23
Mar ’25US$257.49
US$250.73
-2.6%
8.5%US$305.00US$207.00n/a24
Feb ’25US$255.23
US$241.56
-5.4%
9.0%US$272.00US$175.00n/a25
Jan ’25US$236.38
US$231.80
-1.9%
10.0%US$264.00US$170.00n/a25
Dec ’24US$226.47
US$227.32
+0.4%
9.4%US$264.00US$170.00US$275.8525
Nov ’24US$190.19
US$226.40
+19.0%
9.2%US$264.00US$170.00US$250.0925
Oct ’24US$196.93
US$248.48
+26.2%
8.3%US$280.00US$177.00US$248.1425
Sep ’24US$206.38
US$250.00
+21.1%
8.1%US$280.00US$177.00US$256.1626
Aug ’24US$233.97
US$249.19
+6.5%
8.2%US$280.00US$177.00US$246.4626
Jul ’24US$226.76
US$237.81
+4.9%
8.3%US$288.00US$174.00US$214.0626
Jun ’24US$212.21
US$237.96
+12.1%
8.3%US$288.00US$174.00US$224.8026
May ’24US$208.61
US$236.76
+13.5%
8.6%US$288.00US$174.00US$230.5825
Apr ’24US$212.00
US$247.68
+16.8%
8.7%US$286.00US$177.00US$252.0025
Mar ’24US$225.41
US$249.64
+10.7%
8.2%US$286.00US$177.00US$257.4925
Feb ’24US$248.79
US$250.76
+0.8%
8.5%US$286.00US$177.00US$255.2325
Jan ’24US$246.42
US$249.88
+1.4%
8.5%US$285.00US$177.00US$236.3824
Dec ’23US$256.36
US$246.96
-3.7%
8.5%US$285.00US$177.00US$226.4724

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/20 00:10
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/20 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Norfolk Southern Corporation is covered by 49 analysts. 21 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Jeffrey KauffmanAegis Capital Corporation
John EadeArgus Research Company
Oliver HolmesAtlantic Equities LLP