Results: Douglas AG Exceeded Expectations And The Consensus Has Updated Its Estimates

The yearly results for Douglas AG (ETR:DOU) were released last week, making it a good time to revisit its performance. Revenues were €4.5b, approximately in line with whatthe analysts expected, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) crushed expectations, coming in at €0.90, an impressive 37% ahead of estimates. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Check out our latest analysis for Douglas

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Douglas' five analysts is for revenues of €4.73b in 2025. This would reflect a reasonable 6.4% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to surge 200% to €2.34. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of €4.74b and earnings per share (EPS) of €2.34 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of €30.67, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Douglas analyst has a price target of €35.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at €27.00. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Douglas' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 6.4% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 11% over the past three years. Compare this to the 22 other companies in this industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenue at 6.0% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it looks like Douglas is forecast to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at €30.67, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Douglas analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Even so, be aware that Douglas is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.