We Think You Can Look Beyond Ceconomy's (ETR:CEC) Lackluster Earnings

Ceconomy AG's (ETR:CEC) recent weak earnings report didn't cause a big stock movement. However, we believe that investors should be aware of some underlying factors which may be of concern.

See our latest analysis for Ceconomy

Zooming In On Ceconomy's Earnings

As finance nerds would already know, the accrual ratio from cashflow is a key measure for assessing how well a company's free cash flow (FCF) matches its profit. In plain english, this ratio subtracts FCF from net profit, and divides that number by the company's average operating assets over that period. The ratio shows us how much a company's profit exceeds its FCF.

As a result, a negative accrual ratio is a positive for the company, and a positive accrual ratio is a negative. That is not intended to imply we should worry about a positive accrual ratio, but it's worth noting where the accrual ratio is rather high. Notably, there is some academic evidence that suggests that a high accrual ratio is a bad sign for near-term profits, generally speaking.

For the year to March 2022, Ceconomy had an accrual ratio of -4.19. That indicates that its free cash flow quite significantly exceeded its statutory profit. To wit, it produced free cash flow of €391m during the period, dwarfing its reported profit of €77.0m. Ceconomy's free cash flow improved over the last year, which is generally good to see. However, that's not all there is to consider. The accrual ratio is reflecting the impact of unusual items on statutory profit, at least in part.

That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.

The Impact Of Unusual Items On Profit

While the accrual ratio might bode well, we also note that Ceconomy's profit was boosted by unusual items worth €77m in the last twelve months. We can't deny that higher profits generally leave us optimistic, but we'd prefer it if the profit were to be sustainable. When we crunched the numbers on thousands of publicly listed companies, we found that a boost from unusual items in a given year is often not repeated the next year. And, after all, that's exactly what the accounting terminology implies. We can see that Ceconomy's positive unusual items were quite significant relative to its profit in the year to March 2022. All else being equal, this would likely have the effect of making the statutory profit a poor guide to underlying earnings power.

Our Take On Ceconomy's Profit Performance

In conclusion, Ceconomy's accrual ratio suggests its statutory earnings are of good quality, but on the other hand the profits were boosted by unusual items. Given the contrasting considerations, we don't have a strong view as to whether Ceconomy's profits are an apt reflection of its underlying potential for profit. In light of this, if you'd like to do more analysis on the company, it's vital to be informed of the risks involved. In terms of investment risks, we've identified 4 warning signs with Ceconomy, and understanding these should be part of your investment process.

In this article we've looked at a number of factors that can impair the utility of profit numbers, as a guide to a business. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.