Arnoldo Mondadori Editore S.p.A.

DB:MDD Stock Report

Market Cap: €537.3m

Arnoldo Mondadori Editore Valuation

Is MDD undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

6/6

Valuation Score 6/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of MDD when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: MDD (€2.02) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€3.59)

Significantly Below Fair Value: MDD is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for MDD?

Key metric: As MDD is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for MDD. This is calculated by dividing MDD's market cap by their current earnings.
What is MDD's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio9.7x
Earnings€55.39m
Market Cap€537.27m

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does MDD's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for MDD vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average20.2x
BST Bastei Lübbe
12.1x0.1%€129.4m
M8G Verve Group
14.5x22.0%€737.9m
NWO New Work
30.9x32.3%€367.6m
SAX Ströer SE KGaA
23.5x29.2%€2.7b
MDD Arnoldo Mondadori Editore
9.7x9.9%€537.3m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: MDD is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.7x) compared to the peer average (20.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does MDD's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Media Industry?

1 CompanyPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
MDD 9.7xIndustry Avg. 12.4xNo. of Companies16PE01020304050+
1 CompanyEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: MDD is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.7x) compared to the European Media industry average (12.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is MDD's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

MDD PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio9.7x
Fair PE Ratio15x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: MDD is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst MDD forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€2.02
€3.19
+58.3%
4.0%€3.35€3.00n/a5
Nov ’25€2.38
€3.21
+34.9%
3.7%€3.35€3.00n/a5
Oct ’25€2.38
€3.21
+34.9%
3.7%€3.35€3.00n/a5
Sep ’25€2.49
€3.17
+27.3%
6.1%€3.35€2.80n/a5
Aug ’25€2.56
€3.17
+24.1%
6.1%€3.35€2.80n/a5
Jul ’25€2.46
€3.17
+29.1%
6.1%€3.35€2.80n/a5
Jun ’25€2.24
€3.07
+37.1%
7.3%€3.30€2.80n/a5
May ’25€2.23
€3.07
+38.0%
7.3%€3.30€2.80n/a5
Apr ’25€2.26
€3.07
+36.1%
7.3%€3.30€2.80n/a5
Mar ’25€2.09
€2.83
+35.2%
8.8%€3.20€2.50n/a4
Feb ’25€2.31
€2.89
+25.1%
10.1%€3.25€2.50n/a5
Jan ’25€2.08
€2.89
+39.3%
10.1%€3.25€2.50n/a5
Dec ’24€2.03
€2.89
+42.7%
10.1%€3.25€2.50n/a5
Nov ’24€2.02
€2.89
+43.1%
10.1%€3.25€2.50€2.385
Oct ’24€2.10
€2.91
+38.6%
9.6%€3.25€2.50€2.385
Sep ’24€2.09
€2.91
+39.2%
9.6%€3.25€2.50€2.495
Aug ’24€2.09
€2.91
+39.6%
9.1%€3.25€2.60€2.565
Jul ’24€1.96
€2.77
+41.5%
9.1%€3.20€2.50€2.465
Jun ’24€1.81
€2.77
+53.0%
9.1%€3.20€2.50€2.245
May ’24€1.91
€2.77
+44.9%
9.1%€3.20€2.50€2.235
Apr ’24€1.91
€2.77
+44.7%
9.1%€3.20€2.50€2.265
Mar ’24€1.80
€2.72
+51.4%
10.8%€3.20€2.40€2.095
Feb ’24€1.88
€2.72
+44.4%
10.8%€3.20€2.40€2.315
Jan ’24€1.79
€2.72
+51.6%
10.8%€3.20€2.40€2.085
Dec ’23€1.81
€2.76
+52.7%
9.9%€3.20€2.40€2.035
Nov ’23€1.68
€2.70
+60.5%
9.9%€3.20€2.40€2.025

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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