Stock Analysis

An Intrinsic Calculation For Nexus AG (ETR:NXU) Suggests It's 40% Undervalued

XTRA:NXU
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Key Insights

  • Nexus' estimated fair value is €87.40 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
  • Nexus' €52.60 share price signals that it might be 40% undervalued
  • The €67.00 analyst price target for NXU is 23% less than our estimate of fair value

Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of Nexus AG (ETR:NXU) by estimating the company's future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. Our analysis will employ the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Before you think you won't be able to understand it, just read on! It's actually much less complex than you'd imagine.

We would caution that there are many ways of valuing a company and, like the DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.

See our latest analysis for Nexus

The Method

We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034
Levered FCF (€, Millions) €40.8m €44.7m €48.9m €54.1m €57.7m €60.6m €62.9m €64.6m €66.1m €67.3m
Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x6 Analyst x6 Analyst x1 Analyst x1 Est @ 6.73% Est @ 4.96% Est @ 3.71% Est @ 2.84% Est @ 2.23% Est @ 1.81%
Present Value (€, Millions) Discounted @ 4.8% €38.9 €40.7 €42.5 €44.9 €45.7 €45.8 €45.4 €44.5 €43.4 €42.2

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = €434m

The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 0.8%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 4.8%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2034 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = €67m× (1 + 0.8%) ÷ (4.8%– 0.8%) = €1.7b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= €1.7b÷ ( 1 + 4.8%)10= €1.1b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is €1.5b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of €52.6, the company appears quite undervalued at a 40% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.

dcf
XTRA:NXU Discounted Cash Flow August 6th 2024

The Assumptions

The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Nexus as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 4.8%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.961. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for Nexus

Strength
  • Earnings growth over the past year exceeded the industry.
  • Currently debt free.
Weakness
  • Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Healthcare Services market.
Opportunity
  • Annual revenue is forecast to grow faster than the German market.
  • Trading below our estimate of fair value by more than 20%.
Threat
  • Annual earnings are forecast to grow slower than the German market.

Moving On:

Although the valuation of a company is important, it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. What is the reason for the share price sitting below the intrinsic value? For Nexus, we've compiled three pertinent aspects you should explore:

  1. Financial Health: Does NXU have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk.
  2. Future Earnings: How does NXU's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
  3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the XTRA every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.

Discover if Nexus might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.