Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. As with many other companies ifa systems AG (ETR:IS8) makes use of debt. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
Why Does Debt Bring Risk?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.
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What Is ifa systems's Debt?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that ifa systems had €2.50m of debt in December 2020, down from €3.00m, one year before. On the flip side, it has €1.64m in cash leading to net debt of about €861.0k.
How Healthy Is ifa systems' Balance Sheet?
The latest balance sheet data shows that ifa systems had liabilities of €5.30m due within a year, and liabilities of €3.29m falling due after that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of €1.64m as well as receivables valued at €1.12m due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling €5.82m more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
While this might seem like a lot, it is not so bad since ifa systems has a market capitalization of €20.9m, and so it could probably strengthen its balance sheet by raising capital if it needed to. But we definitely want to keep our eyes open to indications that its debt is bringing too much risk.
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
ifa systems has a low net debt to EBITDA ratio of only 1.4. And its EBIT covers its interest expense a whopping 13.1 times over. So we're pretty relaxed about its super-conservative use of debt. In fact ifa systems's saving grace is its low debt levels, because its EBIT has tanked 87% in the last twelve months. When it comes to paying off debt, falling earnings are no more useful than sugary sodas are for your health. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine ifa systems's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. During the last two years, ifa systems produced sturdy free cash flow equating to 52% of its EBIT, about what we'd expect. This free cash flow puts the company in a good position to pay down debt, when appropriate.
Our View
ifa systems's EBIT growth rate was a real negative on this analysis, although the other factors we considered were considerably better. In particular, we are dazzled with its interest cover. It's also worth noting that ifa systems is in the Healthcare Services industry, which is often considered to be quite defensive. When we consider all the factors mentioned above, we do feel a bit cautious about ifa systems's use of debt. While we appreciate debt can enhance returns on equity, we'd suggest that shareholders keep close watch on its debt levels, lest they increase. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. To that end, you should be aware of the 2 warning signs we've spotted with ifa systems .
When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.
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About XTRA:IS8
ifa systems
Develops and sells software products for ophthalmology worldwide.
Proven track record with adequate balance sheet.