Stock Analysis

Investing in Deutsche Bank (ETR:DBK) five years ago would have delivered you a 125% gain

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XTRA:DBK

The most you can lose on any stock (assuming you don't use leverage) is 100% of your money. But on the bright side, you can make far more than 100% on a really good stock. One great example is Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft (ETR:DBK) which saw its share price drive 107% higher over five years. The last week saw the share price soften some 2.9%.

So let's investigate and see if the longer term performance of the company has been in line with the underlying business' progress.

View our latest analysis for Deutsche Bank

While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

During the five years of share price growth, Deutsche Bank moved from a loss to profitability. That kind of transition can be an inflection point that justifies a strong share price gain, just as we have seen here. Given that the company made a profit three years ago, but not five years ago, it is worth looking at the share price returns over the last three years, too. Indeed, the Deutsche Bank share price has gained 43% in three years. During the same period, EPS grew by 21% each year. This EPS growth is higher than the 13% average annual increase in the share price over the same three years. Therefore, it seems the market has moderated its expectations for growth, somewhat. This cautious sentiment is reflected in its (fairly low) P/E ratio of 8.27.

The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

XTRA:DBK Earnings Per Share Growth September 17th 2024

This free interactive report on Deutsche Bank's earnings, revenue and cash flow is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. As it happens, Deutsche Bank's TSR for the last 5 years was 125%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

We're pleased to report that Deutsche Bank shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 49% over one year. Of course, that includes the dividend. That's better than the annualised return of 18% over half a decade, implying that the company is doing better recently. Given the share price momentum remains strong, it might be worth taking a closer look at the stock, lest you miss an opportunity. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Deutsche Bank better, we need to consider many other factors. Consider risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Deutsche Bank you should know about.

For those who like to find winning investments this free list of undervalued companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on German exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

About XTRA:DBK

Deutsche Bank

A stock corporation, provides corporate and investment banking, and asset management products and services to private individuals, corporate entities, and institutional clients in Germany, the United Kingdom, rest of Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Americas, and the Asia-Pacific.