Stock Analysis

Even after rising 15% this past week, HelloFresh (ETR:HFG) shareholders are still down 90% over the past three years

XTRA:HFG
Source: Shutterstock

It is a pleasure to report that the HelloFresh SE (ETR:HFG) is up 76% in the last quarter. But that is meagre solace in the face of the shocking decline over three years. The share price has sunk like a leaky ship, down 90% in that time. So it's about time shareholders saw some gains. Of course the real question is whether the business can sustain a turnaround. We really feel for shareholders in this scenario. It's a good reminder of the importance of diversification, and it's worth keeping in mind there's more to life than money, anyway.

The recent uptick of 15% could be a positive sign of things to come, so let's take a look at historical fundamentals.

View our latest analysis for HelloFresh

Given that HelloFresh didn't make a profit in the last twelve months, we'll focus on revenue growth to form a quick view of its business development. When a company doesn't make profits, we'd generally hope to see good revenue growth. That's because it's hard to be confident a company will be sustainable if revenue growth is negligible, and it never makes a profit.

In the last three years, HelloFresh saw its revenue grow by 12% per year, compound. That's a pretty good rate of top-line growth. So it seems unlikely the 24% share price drop (each year) is entirely about the revenue. More likely, the market was spooked by the cost of that revenue. If you buy into companies that lose money then you always risk losing money yourself. Just don't lose the lesson.

You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
XTRA:HFG Earnings and Revenue Growth September 19th 2024

HelloFresh is a well known stock, with plenty of analyst coverage, suggesting some visibility into future growth. So we recommend checking out this free report showing consensus forecasts

A Different Perspective

While the broader market gained around 10.0% in the last year, HelloFresh shareholders lost 73%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 6% per year over five years. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Take risks, for example - HelloFresh has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.

Of course HelloFresh may not be the best stock to buy. So you may wish to see this free collection of growth stocks.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on German exchanges.

Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.

Discover if HelloFresh might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.