Stock Analysis

Earnings Beat: Bilfinger SE Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Models

XTRA:GBF
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A week ago, Bilfinger SE (ETR:GBF) came out with a strong set of third-quarter numbers that could potentially lead to a re-rate of the stock. The company beat forecasts, with revenue of €1.1b, some 4.0% above estimates, and statutory earnings per share (EPS) coming in at €0.98, 29% ahead of expectations. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for Bilfinger

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XTRA:GBF Earnings and Revenue Growth November 18th 2023

Following the latest results, Bilfinger's five analysts are now forecasting revenues of €4.67b in 2024. This would be a reasonable 4.1% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to jump 98% to €3.59. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of €4.67b and earnings per share (EPS) of €3.52 in 2024. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at €41.80. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Bilfinger analyst has a price target of €50.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at €32.00. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Bilfinger shareholders.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. The analysts are definitely expecting Bilfinger's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 3.2% annualised growth to the end of 2024 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 0.3% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 5.0% per year. So it's clear that despite the acceleration in growth, Bilfinger is expected to grow meaningfully slower than the industry average.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Bilfinger's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Bilfinger going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here..

It is also worth noting that we have found 3 warning signs for Bilfinger that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.