At €28.10, Is It Time To Put Bilfinger SE (ETR:GBF) On Your Watch List?

While Bilfinger SE (ETR:GBF) might not be the most widely known stock at the moment, it received a lot of attention from a substantial price movement on the XTRA over the last few months, increasing to €31.06 at one point, and dropping to the lows of €25.80. Some share price movements can give investors a better opportunity to enter into the stock, and potentially buy at a lower price. A question to answer is whether Bilfinger's current trading price of €28.10 reflective of the actual value of the small-cap? Or is it currently undervalued, providing us with the opportunity to buy? Let’s take a look at Bilfinger’s outlook and value based on the most recent financial data to see if there are any catalysts for a price change.

Check out the opportunities and risks within the DE Commercial Services industry.

What Is Bilfinger Worth?

The share price seems sensible at the moment according to my price multiple model, where I compare the company's price-to-earnings ratio to the industry average. I’ve used the price-to-earnings ratio in this instance because there’s not enough visibility to forecast its cash flows. The stock’s ratio of 9.31x is currently trading slightly below its industry peers’ ratio of 11.06x, which means if you buy Bilfinger today, you’d be paying a reasonable price for it. And if you believe that Bilfinger should be trading at this level in the long run, then there’s not much of an upside to gain over and above other industry peers. Is there another opportunity to buy low in the future? Since Bilfinger’s share price is quite volatile, we could potentially see it sink lower (or rise higher) in the future, giving us another chance to buy. This is based on its high beta, which is a good indicator for how much the stock moves relative to the rest of the market.

What kind of growth will Bilfinger generate?

Future outlook is an important aspect when you’re looking at buying a stock, especially if you are an investor looking for growth in your portfolio. Although value investors would argue that it’s the intrinsic value relative to the price that matter the most, a more compelling investment thesis would be high growth potential at a cheap price. Though in the case of Bilfinger, it is expected to deliver a relatively unexciting earnings growth of 5.5%, which doesn’t help build up its investment thesis. Growth doesn’t appear to be a main reason for a buy decision for the company, at least in the near term.

What This Means For You

Are you a shareholder? It seems like the market has already priced in GBF’s growth outlook, with shares trading around industry price multiples. However, there are also other important factors which we haven’t considered today, such as the track record of its management team. Have these factors changed since the last time you looked at GBF? Will you have enough conviction to buy should the price fluctuate below the industry PE ratio?

Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping tabs on GBF, now may not be the most advantageous time to buy, given it is trading around industry price multiples. However, the positive growth outlook may mean it’s worth diving deeper into other factors in order to take advantage of the next price drop.

Keep in mind, when it comes to analysing a stock it's worth noting the risks involved. While conducting our analysis, we found that Bilfinger has 2 warning signs and it would be unwise to ignore these.

If you are no longer interested in Bilfinger, you can use our free platform to see our list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.