Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. As with many other companies Rheinmetall AG (ETR:RHM) makes use of debt. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
Why Does Debt Bring Risk?
Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.
Check out our latest analysis for Rheinmetall
What Is Rheinmetall's Debt?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of March 2023 Rheinmetall had €2.03b of debt, an increase on €943.0m, over one year. However, it also had €1.71b in cash, and so its net debt is €316.0m.
How Healthy Is Rheinmetall's Balance Sheet?
The latest balance sheet data shows that Rheinmetall had liabilities of €3.69b due within a year, and liabilities of €2.40b falling due after that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of €1.71b as well as receivables valued at €1.69b due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling €2.68b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
This deficit isn't so bad because Rheinmetall is worth a massive €10.4b, and thus could probably raise enough capital to shore up its balance sheet, if the need arose. But it's clear that we should definitely closely examine whether it can manage its debt without dilution.
We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
Rheinmetall's net debt is only 0.34 times its EBITDA. And its EBIT covers its interest expense a whopping 35.3 times over. So you could argue it is no more threatened by its debt than an elephant is by a mouse. And we also note warmly that Rheinmetall grew its EBIT by 20% last year, making its debt load easier to handle. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Rheinmetall's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. Looking at the most recent three years, Rheinmetall recorded free cash flow of 28% of its EBIT, which is weaker than we'd expect. That's not great, when it comes to paying down debt.
Our View
The good news is that Rheinmetall's demonstrated ability to cover its interest expense with its EBIT delights us like a fluffy puppy does a toddler. But truth be told we feel its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow does undermine this impression a bit. All these things considered, it appears that Rheinmetall can comfortably handle its current debt levels. On the plus side, this leverage can boost shareholder returns, but the potential downside is more risk of loss, so it's worth monitoring the balance sheet. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For example - Rheinmetall has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.
If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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