Solid Earnings Reflect Nordex's (ETR:NDX1) Strength As A Business

The subdued stock price reaction suggests that Nordex SE's (ETR:NDX1) strong earnings didn't offer any surprises. We think that investors have missed some encouraging factors underlying the profit figures.

View our latest analysis for Nordex

Zooming In On Nordex's Earnings

One key financial ratio used to measure how well a company converts its profit to free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio. In plain english, this ratio subtracts FCF from net profit, and divides that number by the company's average operating assets over that period. The ratio shows us how much a company's profit exceeds its FCF.

Therefore, it's actually considered a good thing when a company has a negative accrual ratio, but a bad thing if its accrual ratio is positive. While having an accrual ratio above zero is of little concern, we do think it's worth noting when a company has a relatively high accrual ratio. That's because some academic studies have suggested that high accruals ratios tend to lead to lower profit or less profit growth.

Nordex has an accrual ratio of -0.77 for the year to September 2024. That implies it has very good cash conversion, and that its earnings in the last year actually significantly understate its free cash flow. To wit, it produced free cash flow of €302m during the period, dwarfing its reported profit of €22.3m. Notably, Nordex had negative free cash flow last year, so the €302m it produced this year was a welcome improvement. However, as we will discuss below, we can see that the company's accrual ratio has been impacted by its tax situation.

That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.

An Unusual Tax Situation

In addition to the notable accrual ratio, we can see that Nordex received a tax benefit of €40m. This is of course a bit out of the ordinary, given it is more common for companies to be paying tax than receiving tax benefits! Of course, prima facie it's great to receive a tax benefit. And given that it lost money last year, it seems possible that the benefit is evidence that it now expects to find value in its past tax losses. However, our data indicates that tax benefits can temporarily boost statutory profit in the year it is booked, but subsequently profit may fall back. Assuming the tax benefit is not repeated every year, we could see its profitability drop noticeably, all else being equal. So while we think it's great to receive a tax benefit, it does tend to imply an increased risk that the statutory profit overstates the sustainable earnings power of the business.

Our Take On Nordex's Profit Performance

While Nordex's accrual ratio stands testament to its strong cashflow, and indicates good quality earnings, the fact that it received a tax benefit suggests that this year's profit may not be a great guide to its sustainable profit run-rate. Based on these factors, we think that Nordex's profits are a reasonably conservative guide to its underlying profitability. Ultimately, this article has formed an opinion based on historical data. However, it can also be great to think about what analysts are forecasting for the future. Luckily, you can check out what analysts are forecasting by clicking here.

In this article we've looked at a number of factors that can impair the utility of profit numbers, as a guide to a business. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with high insider ownership.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.