Assessing thyssenkrupp nucera (XTRA:NCH2) Valuation After Major Middle East Electrolyser Contract Win

thyssenkrupp nucera KGaA (XTRA:NCH2) just landed a high double digit million euro contract to supply electrolysers for a new large scale Chlor Alkali plant in the Middle East, sharpening attention on its stock.

See our latest analysis for thyssenkrupp nucera KGaA.

The latest contract win comes after a choppy spell for the stock, with a 90 day share price return of minus 19.54 percent and a 1 year total shareholder return of minus 23.44 percent. This suggests sentiment may be stabilising rather than accelerating.

If this deal has you thinking about where the next wave of industrial winners could emerge, it might be worth exploring fast growing stocks with high insider ownership.

With the shares still trading well below analyst targets despite signs of improving profitability, the key question now is whether thyssenkrupp nucera is quietly undervalued or if the market already sees and prices in its next phase of growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 25.9% Undervalued

With thyssenkrupp nucera last closing at €7.97 against a narrative fair value of about €10.75, the market gap here is hard to ignore.

Expansion of the service and aftermarket business in the chlor-alkali segment (with rising orders from the Middle East, Central Europe, U.S., and China) is boosting recurring, higher-margin revenues, as evidenced by the stable or growing EBIT in this segment. This supports gross margin expansion and enhanced earnings quality over time.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how a shrinking revenue base can still underpin a higher valuation multiple and richer margins. The narrative leans on specific profitability upgrades and long dated earnings power. Want to see which forward assumptions really carry this upside case and how they bridge today’s losses to tomorrow’s cash flows.

Result: Fair Value of €10.75 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, a thinner order pipeline and delays in final investment decisions on flagship green hydrogen projects could quickly reverse this upside case.

Find out about the key risks to this thyssenkrupp nucera KGaA narrative.

Another View: Valuation Multiples Flash a Warning

While narratives and fair value models hint at upside, the current valuation looks stretched on earnings. NCH2 trades on a P E ratio of about 62.9 times, roughly double peers at 30.9 times and triple our fair ratio of 20.3 times, leaving little room for execution missteps.

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own thyssenkrupp nucera KGaA Narrative

If you see the story differently or want to stress test every assumption yourself, you can build a custom view in minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your thyssenkrupp nucera KGaA research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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