When we're researching a company, it's sometimes hard to find the warning signs, but there are some financial metrics that can help spot trouble early. More often than not, we'll see a declining return on capital employed (ROCE) and a declining amount of capital employed. This indicates the company is producing less profit from its investments and its total assets are decreasing. On that note, looking into Muehlhan (ETR:M4N), we weren't too upbeat about how things were going.
What is Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)?
Just to clarify if you're unsure, ROCE is a metric for evaluating how much pre-tax income (in percentage terms) a company earns on the capital invested in its business. Analysts use this formula to calculate it for Muehlhan:
Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)
0.064 = €6.6m ÷ (€173m - €69m) (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2020).
Therefore, Muehlhan has an ROCE of 6.4%. In absolute terms, that's a low return and it also under-performs the Construction industry average of 10.0%.
See our latest analysis for Muehlhan
In the above chart we have measured Muehlhan's prior ROCE against its prior performance, but the future is arguably more important. If you'd like to see what analysts are forecasting going forward, you should check out our free report for Muehlhan.
What Can We Tell From Muehlhan's ROCE Trend?
In terms of Muehlhan's historical ROCE movements, the trend doesn't inspire confidence. Unfortunately the returns on capital have diminished from the 9.9% that they were earning five years ago. Meanwhile, capital employed in the business has stayed roughly the flat over the period. Companies that exhibit these attributes tend to not be shrinking, but they can be mature and facing pressure on their margins from competition. If these trends continue, we wouldn't expect Muehlhan to turn into a multi-bagger.
On a separate but related note, it's important to know that Muehlhan has a current liabilities to total assets ratio of 40%, which we'd consider pretty high. This effectively means that suppliers (or short-term creditors) are funding a large portion of the business, so just be aware that this can introduce some elements of risk. While it's not necessarily a bad thing, it can be beneficial if this ratio is lower.The Bottom Line On Muehlhan's ROCE
All in all, the lower returns from the same amount of capital employed aren't exactly signs of a compounding machine. However the stock has delivered a 50% return to shareholders over the last five years, so investors might be expecting the trends to turn around. In any case, the current underlying trends don't bode well for long term performance so unless they reverse, we'd start looking elsewhere.
Like most companies, Muehlhan does come with some risks, and we've found 3 warning signs that you should be aware of.
For those who like to invest in solid companies, check out this free list of companies with solid balance sheets and high returns on equity.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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About XTRA:M4N
Flawless balance sheet and good value.