Earnings Miss: KION GROUP AG Missed EPS By 8.6% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

Shareholders of KION GROUP AG (ETR:KGX) will be pleased this week, given that the stock price is up 12% to €47.36 following its latest yearly results. It looks like the results were a bit of a negative overall. While revenues of €11b were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings were less than expected, missing estimates by 8.6% to hit €2.33 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

See our latest analysis for KION GROUP

Taking into account the latest results, KION GROUP's 19 analysts currently expect revenues in 2024 to be €11.4b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to jump 37% to €3.18. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of €11.3b and earnings per share (EPS) of €3.14 in 2024. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of €47.68, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on KION GROUP, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at €71.00 and the most bearish at €23.00 per share. So we wouldn't be assigning too much credibility to analyst price targets in this case, because there are clearly some widely different views on what kind of performance this business can generate. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the KION GROUP's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 0.2% annualised decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 7.9% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 3.1% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - KION GROUP is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that KION GROUP's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at €47.68, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on KION GROUP. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple KION GROUP analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also view our analysis of KION GROUP's balance sheet, and whether we think KION GROUP is carrying too much debt, for free on our platform here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.