FRIWO AG's (ETR:CEA) Shares Climb 32% But Its Business Is Yet to Catch Up

FRIWO AG (ETR:CEA) shares have had a really impressive month, gaining 32% after a shaky period beforehand. Unfortunately, the gains of the last month did little to right the losses of the last year with the stock still down 25% over that time.

After such a large jump in price, given close to half the companies operating in Germany's Electrical industry have price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") below 1x, you may consider FRIWO as a stock to potentially avoid with its 2.2x P/S ratio. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the elevated P/S.

View our latest analysis for FRIWO

What Does FRIWO's P/S Mean For Shareholders?

As an illustration, revenue has deteriorated at FRIWO over the last year, which is not ideal at all. Perhaps the market believes the company can do enough to outperform the rest of the industry in the near future, which is keeping the P/S ratio high. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

Want the full picture on earnings, revenue and cash flow for the company? Then our free report on FRIWO will help you shine a light on its historical performance.

Do Revenue Forecasts Match The High P/S Ratio?

FRIWO's P/S ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver solid growth, and importantly, perform better than the industry.

Taking a look back first, the company's revenue growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 40%. That put a dampener on the good run it was having over the longer-term as its three-year revenue growth is still a noteworthy 12% in total. So we can start by confirming that the company has generally done a good job of growing revenue over that time, even though it had some hiccups along the way.

Comparing that to the industry, which is predicted to deliver 12% growth in the next 12 months, the company's momentum is weaker, based on recent medium-term annualised revenue results.

With this information, we find it concerning that FRIWO is trading at a P/S higher than the industry. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

The Bottom Line On FRIWO's P/S

FRIWO's P/S is on the rise since its shares have risen strongly. We'd say the price-to-sales ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

Our examination of FRIWO revealed its poor three-year revenue trends aren't detracting from the P/S as much as we though, given they look worse than current industry expectations. When we see slower than industry revenue growth but an elevated P/S, there's considerable risk of the share price declining, sending the P/S lower. Unless there is a significant improvement in the company's medium-term performance, it will be difficult to prevent the P/S ratio from declining to a more reasonable level.

It's always necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with FRIWO (at least 1 which is a bit unpleasant), and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

If companies with solid past earnings growth is up your alley, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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