Traton SE Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

Last week, you might have seen that Traton SE (ETR:8TRA) released its second-quarter result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 8.4% to €28.30 in the past week. It was a pretty mixed result, with revenues beating expectations to hit €12b. Statutory earnings fell 8.3% short of analyst forecasts, reaching €1.17 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for Traton

Following last week's earnings report, Traton's 13 analysts are forecasting 2024 revenues to be €46.6b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to increase 3.9% to €5.30. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of €46.7b and earnings per share (EPS) of €5.06 in 2024. So the consensus seems to have become somewhat more optimistic on Traton's earnings potential following these results.

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of €36.94, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Traton analyst has a price target of €55.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at €22.00. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 3.2% by the end of 2024. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 16% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 4.5% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Traton is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Traton following these results. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Traton. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Traton going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You still need to take note of risks, for example - Traton has 2 warning signs (and 1 which makes us a bit uncomfortable) we think you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com