Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. As with many other companies Petrolina (Holdings) Public Ltd (CSE:PHL) makes use of debt. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
Why Does Debt Bring Risk?
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
Check out our latest analysis for Petrolina (Holdings)
What Is Petrolina (Holdings)'s Debt?
The chart below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Petrolina (Holdings) had €161.8m in debt in June 2024; about the same as the year before. And it doesn't have much cash, so its net debt is about the same.
A Look At Petrolina (Holdings)'s Liabilities
We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Petrolina (Holdings) had liabilities of €132.2m falling due within a year, and liabilities of €94.1m due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of €1.28m and €65.4m worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities total €159.6m more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
This deficit casts a shadow over the €78.8m company, like a colossus towering over mere mortals. So we definitely think shareholders need to watch this one closely. After all, Petrolina (Holdings) would likely require a major re-capitalisation if it had to pay its creditors today.
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
Weak interest cover of 0.46 times and a disturbingly high net debt to EBITDA ratio of 12.2 hit our confidence in Petrolina (Holdings) like a one-two punch to the gut. This means we'd consider it to have a heavy debt load. Worse, Petrolina (Holdings)'s EBIT was down 32% over the last year. If earnings keep going like that over the long term, it has a snowball's chance in hell of paying off that debt. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is Petrolina (Holdings)'s earnings that will influence how the balance sheet holds up in the future. So if you're keen to discover more about its earnings, it might be worth checking out this graph of its long term earnings trend.
Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. Over the last three years, Petrolina (Holdings) recorded free cash flow worth a fulsome 99% of its EBIT, which is stronger than we'd usually expect. That puts it in a very strong position to pay down debt.
Our View
On the face of it, Petrolina (Holdings)'s EBIT growth rate left us tentative about the stock, and its level of total liabilities was no more enticing than the one empty restaurant on the busiest night of the year. But at least it's pretty decent at converting EBIT to free cash flow; that's encouraging. Taking into account all the aforementioned factors, it looks like Petrolina (Holdings) has too much debt. That sort of riskiness is ok for some, but it certainly doesn't float our boat. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. Case in point: We've spotted 5 warning signs for Petrolina (Holdings) you should be aware of, and 2 of them are a bit unpleasant.
Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About CSE:PHL
Petrolina (Holdings)
Engages in the import and marketing of petroleum products in Cyprus.
Medium-low second-rate dividend payer.