Revenues Not Telling The Story For Henan Xinning Modern Logistics Co.,Ltd. (SZSE:300013) After Shares Rise 32%

Those holding Henan Xinning Modern Logistics Co.,Ltd. (SZSE:300013) shares would be relieved that the share price has rebounded 32% in the last thirty days, but it needs to keep going to repair the recent damage it has caused to investor portfolios. Not all shareholders will be feeling jubilant, since the share price is still down a very disappointing 24% in the last twelve months.

After such a large jump in price, given around half the companies in China's Logistics industry have price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") below 1.2x, you may consider Henan Xinning Modern LogisticsLtd as a stock to avoid entirely with its 3.6x P/S ratio. However, the P/S might be quite high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

See our latest analysis for Henan Xinning Modern LogisticsLtd

How Has Henan Xinning Modern LogisticsLtd Performed Recently?

As an illustration, revenue has deteriorated at Henan Xinning Modern LogisticsLtd over the last year, which is not ideal at all. It might be that many expect the company to still outplay most other companies over the coming period, which has kept the P/S from collapsing. However, if this isn't the case, investors might get caught out paying too much for the stock.

We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on Henan Xinning Modern LogisticsLtd's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/S?

Henan Xinning Modern LogisticsLtd's P/S ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver very strong growth, and importantly, perform much better than the industry.

Taking a look back first, the company's revenue growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 48%. This means it has also seen a slide in revenue over the longer-term as revenue is down 46% in total over the last three years. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of revenue growth.

Comparing that to the industry, which is predicted to deliver 16% growth in the next 12 months, the company's downward momentum based on recent medium-term revenue results is a sobering picture.

With this information, we find it concerning that Henan Xinning Modern LogisticsLtd is trading at a P/S higher than the industry. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. There's a very good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.

The Bottom Line On Henan Xinning Modern LogisticsLtd's P/S

Henan Xinning Modern LogisticsLtd's P/S has grown nicely over the last month thanks to a handy boost in the share price. We'd say the price-to-sales ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

Our examination of Henan Xinning Modern LogisticsLtd revealed its shrinking revenue over the medium-term isn't resulting in a P/S as low as we expected, given the industry is set to grow. When we see revenue heading backwards and underperforming the industry forecasts, we feel the possibility of the share price declining is very real, bringing the P/S back into the realm of reasonability. Unless the the circumstances surrounding the recent medium-term improve, it wouldn't be wrong to expect a a difficult period ahead for the company's shareholders.

Having said that, be aware Henan Xinning Modern LogisticsLtd is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis, you should know about.

If companies with solid past earnings growth is up your alley, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.