China Merchants Port Group (SZSE:001872) Has A Pretty Healthy Balance Sheet

Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. Importantly, China Merchants Port Group Co., Ltd. (SZSE:001872) does carry debt. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?

When Is Debt Dangerous?

Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.

See our latest analysis for China Merchants Port Group

What Is China Merchants Port Group's Net Debt?

You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that China Merchants Port Group had CN¥52.5b of debt in September 2023, down from CN¥62.3b, one year before. However, because it has a cash reserve of CN¥20.0b, its net debt is less, at about CN¥32.5b.

A Look At China Merchants Port Group's Liabilities

Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that China Merchants Port Group had liabilities of CN¥26.3b due within 12 months and liabilities of CN¥42.3b due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of CN¥20.0b and CN¥3.61b worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by CN¥45.0b.

When you consider that this deficiency exceeds the company's CN¥41.0b market capitalization, you might well be inclined to review the balance sheet intently. Hypothetically, extremely heavy dilution would be required if the company were forced to pay down its liabilities by raising capital at the current share price.

We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.

China Merchants Port Group has a debt to EBITDA ratio of 4.5, which signals significant debt, but is still pretty reasonable for most types of business. However, its interest coverage of 1k is very high, suggesting that the interest expense on the debt is currently quite low. China Merchants Port Group grew its EBIT by 2.6% in the last year. Whilst that hardly knocks our socks off it is a positive when it comes to debt. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But you can't view debt in total isolation; since China Merchants Port Group will need earnings to service that debt. So if you're keen to discover more about its earnings, it might be worth checking out this graph of its long term earnings trend.

Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. Over the last three years, China Merchants Port Group actually produced more free cash flow than EBIT. That sort of strong cash conversion gets us as excited as the crowd when the beat drops at a Daft Punk concert.

Our View

Both China Merchants Port Group's ability to to cover its interest expense with its EBIT and its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow gave us comfort that it can handle its debt. In contrast, our confidence was undermined by its apparent struggle handle its debt, based on its EBITDA,. We would also note that Infrastructure industry companies like China Merchants Port Group commonly do use debt without problems. Looking at all this data makes us feel a little cautious about China Merchants Port Group's debt levels. While we appreciate debt can enhance returns on equity, we'd suggest that shareholders keep close watch on its debt levels, lest they increase. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. These risks can be hard to spot. Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for China Merchants Port Group you should know about.

If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.