NOVA Technology's (SZSE:300921) Earnings Quality Is Low

After announcing weak earnings, NOVA Technology Corporation Limited's (SZSE:300921) stock was strong. Despite the strength in the stock, we feel that investors should be cautious about some numbers in the earnings.

Check out our latest analysis for NOVA Technology

Zooming In On NOVA Technology's Earnings

Many investors haven't heard of the accrual ratio from cashflow, but it is actually a useful measure of how well a company's profit is backed up by free cash flow (FCF) during a given period. In plain english, this ratio subtracts FCF from net profit, and divides that number by the company's average operating assets over that period. The ratio shows us how much a company's profit exceeds its FCF.

That means a negative accrual ratio is a good thing, because it shows that the company is bringing in more free cash flow than its profit would suggest. That is not intended to imply we should worry about a positive accrual ratio, but it's worth noting where the accrual ratio is rather high. That's because some academic studies have suggested that high accruals ratios tend to lead to lower profit or less profit growth.

Over the twelve months to March 2024, NOVA Technology recorded an accrual ratio of 0.27. We can therefore deduce that its free cash flow fell well short of covering its statutory profit. Over the last year it actually had negative free cash flow of CN¥16m, in contrast to the aforementioned profit of CN¥29.7m. We saw that FCF was CN¥65m a year ago though, so NOVA Technology has at least been able to generate positive FCF in the past. However, we can see that a recent tax benefit, along with unusual items, have impacted its statutory profit, and therefore its accrual ratio. The good news for shareholders is that NOVA Technology's accrual ratio was much better last year, so this year's poor reading might simply be a case of a short term mismatch between profit and FCF. As a result, some shareholders may be looking for stronger cash conversion in the current year.

Note: we always recommend investors check balance sheet strength. Click here to be taken to our balance sheet analysis of NOVA Technology.

The Impact Of Unusual Items On Profit

The fact that the company had unusual items boosting profit by CN¥8.4m, in the last year, probably goes some way to explain why its accrual ratio was so weak. While we like to see profit increases, we tend to be a little more cautious when unusual items have made a big contribution. When we analysed the vast majority of listed companies worldwide, we found that significant unusual items are often not repeated. Which is hardly surprising, given the name. We can see that NOVA Technology's positive unusual items were quite significant relative to its profit in the year to March 2024. As a result, we can surmise that the unusual items are making its statutory profit significantly stronger than it would otherwise be.

An Unusual Tax Situation

In addition to the notable accrual ratio, we can see that NOVA Technology received a tax benefit of CN¥2.6m. This is meaningful because companies usually pay tax rather than receive tax benefits. We're sure the company was pleased with its tax benefit. However, our data indicates that tax benefits can temporarily boost statutory profit in the year it is booked, but subsequently profit may fall back. In the likely event the tax benefit is not repeated, we'd expect to see its statutory profit levels drop, at least in the absence of strong growth. While we think it's good that the company has booked a tax benefit, it does mean that there's every chance the statutory profit will come in a lot higher than it would be if the income was adjusted for one-off factors.

Our Take On NOVA Technology's Profit Performance

Summing up, NOVA Technology's tax benefit and unusual items boosted its statutory profit leading to poor cash conversion, as reflected by its accrual ratio. On reflection, the above-mentioned factors give us the strong impression that NOVA Technology'sunderlying earnings power is not as good as it might seem, based on the statutory profit numbers. Keep in mind, when it comes to analysing a stock it's worth noting the risks involved. Be aware that NOVA Technology is showing 5 warning signs in our investment analysis and 4 of those are a bit concerning...

In this article we've looked at a number of factors that can impair the utility of profit numbers, and we've come away cautious. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying to be useful.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.