Shenzhen Q&D Circuits Co., Ltd.'s (SZSE:301628) 42% Share Price Surge Not Quite Adding Up

Shenzhen Q&D Circuits Co., Ltd. (SZSE:301628) shareholders would be excited to see that the share price has had a great month, posting a 42% gain and recovering from prior weakness. While recent buyers may be laughing, long-term holders might not be as pleased since the recent gain only brings the stock back to where it started a year ago.

After such a large jump in price, Shenzhen Q&D Circuits may be sending strong sell signals at present with a price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 11.2x, when you consider almost half of the companies in the Electronic industry in China have P/S ratios under 4.2x and even P/S lower than 2x aren't out of the ordinary. However, the P/S might be quite high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

View our latest analysis for Shenzhen Q&D Circuits

How Shenzhen Q&D Circuits Has Been Performing

The recent revenue growth at Shenzhen Q&D Circuits would have to be considered satisfactory if not spectacular. One possibility is that the P/S ratio is high because investors think this good revenue growth will be enough to outperform the broader industry in the near future. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

Want the full picture on earnings, revenue and cash flow for the company? Then our free report on Shenzhen Q&D Circuits will help you shine a light on its historical performance.

What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/S?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should far outperform the industry for P/S ratios like Shenzhen Q&D Circuits' to be considered reasonable.

Taking a look back first, we see that the company managed to grow revenues by a handy 7.0% last year. The solid recent performance means it was also able to grow revenue by 8.1% in total over the last three years. Accordingly, shareholders would have probably been satisfied with the medium-term rates of revenue growth.

Comparing that to the industry, which is predicted to deliver 26% growth in the next 12 months, the company's momentum is weaker, based on recent medium-term annualised revenue results.

In light of this, it's alarming that Shenzhen Q&D Circuits' P/S sits above the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

What We Can Learn From Shenzhen Q&D Circuits' P/S?

Shares in Shenzhen Q&D Circuits have seen a strong upwards swing lately, which has really helped boost its P/S figure. We'd say the price-to-sales ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

Our examination of Shenzhen Q&D Circuits revealed its poor three-year revenue trends aren't detracting from the P/S as much as we though, given they look worse than current industry expectations. Right now we aren't comfortable with the high P/S as this revenue performance isn't likely to support such positive sentiment for long. Unless there is a significant improvement in the company's medium-term performance, it will be difficult to prevent the P/S ratio from declining to a more reasonable level.

Before you take the next step, you should know about the 1 warning sign for Shenzhen Q&D Circuits that we have uncovered.

If you're unsure about the strength of Shenzhen Q&D Circuits' business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.