AVIC Jonhon Optronic Technology Co.,Ltd. Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

The analysts might have been a bit too bullish on AVIC Jonhon Optronic Technology Co.,Ltd. (SZSE:002179), given that the company fell short of expectations when it released its third-quarter results last week. Unfortunately, AVIC Jonhon Optronic TechnologyLtd delivered a serious earnings miss. Revenues of CN¥4.9b were 16% below expectations, and statutory earnings per share of CN¥0.39 missed estimates by 22%. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on AVIC Jonhon Optronic TechnologyLtd after the latest results.

View our latest analysis for AVIC Jonhon Optronic TechnologyLtd

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for AVIC Jonhon Optronic TechnologyLtd from ten analysts is for revenues of CN¥27.1b in 2025. If met, it would imply a sizeable 44% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to jump 53% to CN¥2.13. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CN¥27.1b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥2.15 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

With the analysts reconfirming their revenue and earnings forecasts, it's surprising to see that the price target rose 7.5% to CN¥51.40. It looks as though they previously had some doubts over whether the business would live up to their expectations. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values AVIC Jonhon Optronic TechnologyLtd at CN¥68.31 per share, while the most bearish prices it at CN¥38.40. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await AVIC Jonhon Optronic TechnologyLtd shareholders.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's clear from the latest estimates that AVIC Jonhon Optronic TechnologyLtd's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 34% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 17% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 18% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that AVIC Jonhon Optronic TechnologyLtd is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple AVIC Jonhon Optronic TechnologyLtd analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You still need to take note of risks, for example - AVIC Jonhon Optronic TechnologyLtd has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.