Beijing VRV Software Corporation Limited's (SZSE:300352) 37% Price Boost Is Out Of Tune With Revenues

Those holding Beijing VRV Software Corporation Limited (SZSE:300352) shares would be relieved that the share price has rebounded 37% in the last thirty days, but it needs to keep going to repair the recent damage it has caused to investor portfolios. Not all shareholders will be feeling jubilant, since the share price is still down a very disappointing 15% in the last twelve months.

Following the firm bounce in price, when almost half of the companies in China's Software industry have price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") below 5.2x, you may consider Beijing VRV Software as a stock not worth researching with its 11.3x P/S ratio. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/S at face value as there may be an explanation why it's so lofty.

See our latest analysis for Beijing VRV Software

How Beijing VRV Software Has Been Performing

For instance, Beijing VRV Software's receding revenue in recent times would have to be some food for thought. It might be that many expect the company to still outplay most other companies over the coming period, which has kept the P/S from collapsing. However, if this isn't the case, investors might get caught out paying too much for the stock.

We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on Beijing VRV Software's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Do Revenue Forecasts Match The High P/S Ratio?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should far outperform the industry for P/S ratios like Beijing VRV Software's to be considered reasonable.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 4.4% decrease to the company's top line. This means it has also seen a slide in revenue over the longer-term as revenue is down 21% in total over the last three years. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing revenue over that time.

In contrast to the company, the rest of the industry is expected to grow by 33% over the next year, which really puts the company's recent medium-term revenue decline into perspective.

With this information, we find it concerning that Beijing VRV Software is trading at a P/S higher than the industry. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. There's a very good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.

What We Can Learn From Beijing VRV Software's P/S?

The strong share price surge has lead to Beijing VRV Software's P/S soaring as well. Using the price-to-sales ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

We've established that Beijing VRV Software currently trades on a much higher than expected P/S since its recent revenues have been in decline over the medium-term. When we see revenue heading backwards and underperforming the industry forecasts, we feel the possibility of the share price declining is very real, bringing the P/S back into the realm of reasonability. If recent medium-term revenue trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.

And what about other risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Beijing VRV Software you should know about.

It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So if growing profitability aligns with your idea of a great company, take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.