Shanghai @hub Co.,Ltd. Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

There's been a notable change in appetite for Shanghai @hub Co.,Ltd. (SHSE:603881) shares in the week since its yearly report, with the stock down 18% to CN¥32.74. It was a pretty mixed result, with revenues beating expectations to hit CN¥1.7b. Statutory earnings fell 9.5% short of analyst forecasts, reaching CN¥0.22 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Shanghai @hubLtd from five analysts is for revenues of CN¥1.82b in 2025. If met, it would imply a modest 6.0% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to bounce 35% to CN¥0.30. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CN¥1.77b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.33 in 2025. So it's pretty clear consensus is mixed on Shanghai @hubLtd after the latest results; whilethe analysts lifted revenue numbers, they also administered a minor downgrade to per-share earnings expectations.

Check out our latest analysis for Shanghai @hubLtd

Curiously, the consensus price target rose 39% to CN¥26.72. We can only conclude that the forecast revenue growth is expected to offset the impact of the expected fall in earnings. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Shanghai @hubLtd, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at CN¥40.00 and the most bearish at CN¥18.00 per share. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Shanghai @hubLtd's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 6.0% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 16% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 15% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Shanghai @hubLtd is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Shanghai @hubLtd. They also upgraded their revenue estimates for next year, even though it is expected to grow slower than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Shanghai @hubLtd going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Even so, be aware that Shanghai @hubLtd is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those can't be ignored...

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.