Stock Analysis

Even though Linewell Software (SHSE:603636) has lost CN¥418m market cap in last 7 days, shareholders are still up 18% over 3 years

SHSE:603636
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Linewell Software Co., Ltd. (SHSE:603636) shareholders have seen the share price descend 12% over the month. But that doesn't change the fact that the returns over the last three years have been pleasing. To wit, the share price did better than an index fund, climbing 16% during that period.

In light of the stock dropping 6.5% in the past week, we want to investigate the longer term story, and see if fundamentals have been the driver of the company's positive three-year return.

View our latest analysis for Linewell Software

There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

During the three years of share price growth, Linewell Software actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) drop 61% per year.

This means it's unlikely the market is judging the company based on earnings growth. Since the change in EPS doesn't seem to correlate with the change in share price, it's worth taking a look at other metrics.

Languishing at just 0.5%, we doubt the dividend is doing much to prop up the share price. You can only imagine how long term shareholders feel about the declining revenue trend (slipping at 4.1% per year). What's clear is that historic earnings and revenue aren't matching up with the share price action, very well. So you might have to dig deeper to get a grasp of the situation

You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
SHSE:603636 Earnings and Revenue Growth January 5th 2025

If you are thinking of buying or selling Linewell Software stock, you should check out this FREE detailed report on its balance sheet.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. We note that for Linewell Software the TSR over the last 3 years was 18%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

Investors in Linewell Software had a tough year, with a total loss of 14% (including dividends), against a market gain of about 6.1%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 2% over the last half decade. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Take risks, for example - Linewell Software has 2 warning signs we think you should be aware of.

For those who like to find winning investments this free list of undervalued companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.