Xinjiang Daqo New Energy Co.,Ltd. (SHSE:688303) Just Released Its Annual Results And Analysts Are Updating Their Estimates

Xinjiang Daqo New Energy Co.,Ltd. (SHSE:688303) came out with its annual results last week, and we wanted to see how the business is performing and what industry forecasters think of the company following this report. It was a moderately negative result overall - revenue fell 5.8% short of analyst estimates at CN¥7.4b, although at least statutory losses were marginally smaller than expected, at CN¥1.27 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Xinjiang Daqo New EnergyLtd after the latest results.

View our latest analysis for Xinjiang Daqo New EnergyLtd

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Xinjiang Daqo New EnergyLtd's seven analysts is for revenues of CN¥12.9b in 2025. This would reflect a sizeable 73% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Xinjiang Daqo New EnergyLtd is also expected to turn profitable, with statutory earnings of CN¥0.71 per share. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CN¥13.2b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.98 in 2025. From this we can that sentiment has definitely become more bearish after the latest results, leading to lower revenue forecasts and a large cut to earnings per share estimates.

Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the CN¥23.66 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Xinjiang Daqo New EnergyLtd analyst has a price target of CN¥30.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at CN¥18.70. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Xinjiang Daqo New EnergyLtd shareholders.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Xinjiang Daqo New EnergyLtd's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's clear from the latest estimates that Xinjiang Daqo New EnergyLtd's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 73% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 14% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 24% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Xinjiang Daqo New EnergyLtd is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Xinjiang Daqo New EnergyLtd. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, but the latest forecasts still imply the business will grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at CN¥23.66, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Xinjiang Daqo New EnergyLtd going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You still need to take note of risks, for example - Xinjiang Daqo New EnergyLtd has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.