JCET Group Co., Ltd. Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

It's been a good week for JCET Group Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600584) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest first-quarter results, and the shares gained 2.6% to CN¥25.17. Results overall were not great, with earnings of CN¥0.08 per share falling drastically short of analyst expectations. Meanwhile revenues hit CN¥6.8b and were slightly better than forecasts. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Check out our latest analysis for JCET Group

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for JCET Group from 17 analysts is for revenues of CN¥33.0b in 2024. If met, it would imply a satisfactory 7.7% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to leap 25% to CN¥1.05. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CN¥33.9b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥1.45 in 2024. From this we can that sentiment has definitely become more bearish after the latest results, leading to lower revenue forecasts and a large cut to earnings per share estimates.

The analysts made no major changes to their price target of CN¥36.33, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on JCET Group's valuation. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values JCET Group at CN¥45.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at CN¥20.90. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's clear from the latest estimates that JCET Group's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 10% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 7.2% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 23% per year. It seems obvious that, while the future growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, JCET Group is expected to grow slower than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at CN¥36.33, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple JCET Group analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for JCET Group you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.