There's Reason For Concern Over Youcare Pharmaceutical Group Co., Ltd.'s (SHSE:688658) Massive 26% Price Jump

Youcare Pharmaceutical Group Co., Ltd. (SHSE:688658) shareholders are no doubt pleased to see that the share price has bounced 26% in the last month, although it is still struggling to make up recently lost ground. Not all shareholders will be feeling jubilant, since the share price is still down a very disappointing 12% in the last twelve months.

After such a large jump in price, Youcare Pharmaceutical Group may be sending bearish signals at the moment with its price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 42.6x, since almost half of all companies in China have P/E ratios under 30x and even P/E's lower than 18x are not unusual. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the elevated P/E.

For instance, Youcare Pharmaceutical Group's receding earnings in recent times would have to be some food for thought. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think the company will still do enough to outperform the broader market in the near future. If not, then existing shareholders may be quite nervous about the viability of the share price.

View our latest analysis for Youcare Pharmaceutical Group

We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on Youcare Pharmaceutical Group's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

How Is Youcare Pharmaceutical Group's Growth Trending?

The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/E as high as Youcare Pharmaceutical Group's is when the company's growth is on track to outshine the market.

If we review the last year of earnings, dishearteningly the company's profits fell to the tune of 43%. This means it has also seen a slide in earnings over the longer-term as EPS is down 66% in total over the last three years. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing earnings over that time.

In contrast to the company, the rest of the market is expected to grow by 42% over the next year, which really puts the company's recent medium-term earnings decline into perspective.

In light of this, it's alarming that Youcare Pharmaceutical Group's P/E sits above the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. There's a very good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.

What We Can Learn From Youcare Pharmaceutical Group's P/E?

The large bounce in Youcare Pharmaceutical Group's shares has lifted the company's P/E to a fairly high level. Using the price-to-earnings ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

We've established that Youcare Pharmaceutical Group currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E since its recent earnings have been in decline over the medium-term. When we see earnings heading backwards and underperforming the market forecasts, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

Plus, you should also learn about these 3 warning signs we've spotted with Youcare Pharmaceutical Group (including 2 which are significant).

It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.