The Consensus EPS Estimates For Citic Press Corporation (SZSE:300788) Just Fell Dramatically

Today is shaping up negative for Citic Press Corporation (SZSE:300788) shareholders, with the analysts delivering a substantial negative revision to this year's forecasts. Both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) forecasts went under the knife, suggesting analysts have soured majorly on the business.

Following the downgrade, the most recent consensus for Citic Press from its seven analysts is for revenues of CN¥1.9b in 2024 which, if met, would be a decent 11% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are presumed to shoot up 36% to CN¥0.83. Previously, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CN¥2.2b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥1.28 in 2024. Indeed, we can see that the analysts are a lot more bearish about Citic Press' prospects, administering a measurable cut to revenue estimates and slashing their EPS estimates to boot.

Check out our latest analysis for Citic Press

Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the CN¥32.63 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's clear from the latest estimates that Citic Press' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 11% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 0.8% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 13% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Citic Press is expected to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest issue in the new estimates is that analysts have reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds lay ahead for Citic Press. There was also a drop in their revenue estimates, although as we saw earlier, forecast growth is only expected to be about the same as the wider market. We're also surprised to see that the price target went unchanged. Still, deteriorating business conditions (assuming accurate forecasts!) can be a leading indicator for the stock price, so we wouldn't blame investors for being more cautious on Citic Press after the downgrade.

Still, the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Citic Press analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Another way to search for interesting companies that could be reaching an inflection point is to track whether management are buying or selling, with our free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

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