Guangdong Advertising Group Co.,Ltd's (SZSE:002400) Shares Climb 26% But Its Business Is Yet to Catch Up

Those holding Guangdong Advertising Group Co.,Ltd (SZSE:002400) shares would be relieved that the share price has rebounded 26% in the last thirty days, but it needs to keep going to repair the recent damage it has caused to investor portfolios. Taking a wider view, although not as strong as the last month, the full year gain of 20% is also fairly reasonable.

Following the firm bounce in price, Guangdong Advertising GroupLtd may be sending very bearish signals at the moment with a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 55.9x, since almost half of all companies in China have P/E ratios under 28x and even P/E's lower than 17x are not unusual. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly elevated P/E.

For example, consider that Guangdong Advertising GroupLtd's financial performance has been poor lately as its earnings have been in decline. It might be that many expect the company to still outplay most other companies over the coming period, which has kept the P/E from collapsing. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

View our latest analysis for Guangdong Advertising GroupLtd

Although there are no analyst estimates available for Guangdong Advertising GroupLtd, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Is There Enough Growth For Guangdong Advertising GroupLtd?

Guangdong Advertising GroupLtd's P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver very strong growth, and importantly, perform much better than the market.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 3.6% decrease to the company's bottom line. At least EPS has managed not to go completely backwards from three years ago in aggregate, thanks to the earlier period of growth. Accordingly, shareholders probably wouldn't have been overly satisfied with the unstable medium-term growth rates.

Comparing that to the market, which is predicted to deliver 41% growth in the next 12 months, the company's momentum is weaker based on recent medium-term annualised earnings results.

In light of this, it's alarming that Guangdong Advertising GroupLtd's P/E sits above the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly limited recent growth rates and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent earnings trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

What We Can Learn From Guangdong Advertising GroupLtd's P/E?

Guangdong Advertising GroupLtd's P/E is flying high just like its stock has during the last month. Using the price-to-earnings ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

Our examination of Guangdong Advertising GroupLtd revealed its three-year earnings trends aren't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted, given they look worse than current market expectations. When we see weak earnings with slower than market growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.

It's always necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with Guangdong Advertising GroupLtd, and understanding should be part of your investment process.

It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.