Stock Analysis

The China South Publishing & Media Group Co., Ltd (SHSE:601098) First-Quarter Results Are Out And Analysts Have Published New Forecasts

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China South Publishing & Media Group Co., Ltd (SHSE:601098) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 2.5% to CN¥12.11 in the week after its latest quarterly results. It was an okay result overall, with revenues coming in at CN¥3.0b, roughly what the analysts had been expecting. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

See our latest analysis for China South Publishing & Media Group

SHSE:601098 Earnings and Revenue Growth April 30th 2024

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for China South Publishing & Media Group from five analysts is for revenues of CN¥15.1b in 2024. If met, it would imply a meaningful 8.2% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to reduce 6.0% to CN¥0.93 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of CN¥14.6b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥1.01 in 2024. So it's pretty clear consensus is mixed on China South Publishing & Media Group after the latest results; whilethe analysts lifted revenue numbers, they also administered a small dip in per-share earnings expectations.

There's been no major changes to the price target of CN¥14.29, suggesting that the impact of higher forecast revenue and lower earnings won't result in a meaningful change to the business' valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on China South Publishing & Media Group, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at CN¥15.20 and the most bearish at CN¥13.10 per share. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. The analysts are definitely expecting China South Publishing & Media Group's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 11% annualised growth to the end of 2024 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 7.4% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 13% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that China South Publishing & Media Group is expected to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. There was also an upgrade to revenue estimates, although as we saw earlier, forecast growth is only expected to be about the same as the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at CN¥14.29, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple China South Publishing & Media Group analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We also provide an overview of the China South Publishing & Media Group Board and CEO remuneration and length of tenure at the company, and whether insiders have been buying the stock, here.

Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.

Find out whether China South Publishing & Media Group is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.