China South Publishing & Media Group (SHSE:601098) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of 601098 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

601098 (CN¥8.73) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (CN¥28.34)

601098 fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	6/6
Future Growth	1/6
Past Performance	1/6
Financial Health	6/6
Dividends	5/6

601098 Stock Overview

China South Publishing & Media Group Co., Ltd, together with its subsidiaries, engages in publishing, printing, distribution, press, and media businesses in China.

Rewards

Trading at 69.2% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings are forecast to grow 10.79% per year

Risk Analysis

High level of non-cash earnings

Dividend of 7.45% is not well covered by earnings

China South Publishing & Media Group Competitors

Jiangsu Phoenix Publishing & Media

SHSE:601928

CN¥15.9b

Zhejiang Publishing & Media

SHSE:601921

CN¥16.2b

Shandong Publishing&MediaLtd

SHSE:601019

CN¥11.9b

People.cn

SHSE:603000

CN¥11.2b

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for China South Publishing & Media Group
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	CN¥8.73
52 Week High	CN¥10.56
52 Week Low	CN¥8.08
Beta	0.083
1 Month Change	-7.42%
3 Month Change	-8.97%
1 Year Change	7.12%
3 Year Change	-25.51%
5 Year Change	-48.16%
Change since IPO	-36.74%

Shareholder Returns

	601098	CN Media	CN Market
7D	-2.8%	-5.7%	-3.7%
1Y	7.1%	-11.1%	-12.7%

Return vs Industry: 601098 exceeded the CN Media industry which returned -11.5% over the past year.

Return vs Market: 601098 exceeded the CN Market which returned -12.3% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is 601098's price volatile compared to industry and market?
601098 volatility
601098 Average Weekly Movement	3.8%
Media Industry Average Movement	5.5%
Market Average Movement	6.1%
10% most volatile stocks in CN Market	9.2%
10% least volatile stocks in CN Market	4.0%

Stable Share Price: 601098 is less volatile than 75% of CN stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 4% a week.

Volatility Over Time: 601098's weekly volatility (4%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
2008	12,695	Shuangping Ding	https://www.zncmjt.com

China South Publishing & Media Group Co., Ltd, together with its subsidiaries, engages in publishing, printing, distribution, press, and media businesses in China. The company offers publishing products, including general and text books; and prints publications, newspapers, packages, bills and receipts, anti-counterfeit products, digital and imposition products, etc., as well as distributes publications and stationery commodities. It also engages in the publishing of magazines, Websites, and newspapers, as well as digital education activities; and organizes automobile exhibitions.

China South Publishing & Media Group Fundamentals Summary

How do China South Publishing & Media Group's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
601098 fundamental statistics
Market Cap	CN¥15.68b
Earnings (TTM)	CN¥1.52b
Revenue (TTM)	CN¥11.64b

10.3x

P/E Ratio

1.3x

P/S Ratio

Is 601098 overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
601098 income statement (TTM)
Revenue	CN¥11.64b
Cost of Revenue	CN¥6.69b
Gross Profit	CN¥4.94b
Other Expenses	CN¥3.42b
Earnings	CN¥1.52b

Last Reported Earnings

Mar 31, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	0.85
Gross Margin	42.48%
Net Profit Margin	13.08%
Debt/Equity Ratio	0%

How did 601098 perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

7.4%

Current Dividend Yield

78%

Payout Ratio

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is 601098 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

6/6

Valuation Score 6/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 601098?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for 601098. This is calculated by dividing 601098's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is 601098's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	CN¥15.68b

601098 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	0.4x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	3.1x
PEG Ratio	1x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 601098's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

601098 PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for 601098 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	22.8x
601928 Jiangsu Phoenix Publishing & Media	7.1x	-1.7%	CN¥15.9b
601921 Zhejiang Publishing & Media	11.8x	n/a	CN¥16.2b
601019 Shandong Publishing&MediaLtd	7.6x	5.5%	CN¥11.9b
603000 People.cn	64.8x	n/a	CN¥11.2b
601098 China South Publishing & Media Group	10.3x	10.8%	CN¥15.7b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 601098 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.3x) compared to the peer average (22.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 601098's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the CN Media Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 601098 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.3x) compared to the CN Media industry average (26.6x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 601098's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

601098 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	10.3x
Fair PE Ratio	18.3x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 601098 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.3x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 601098 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 601098 (CN¥8.73) is trading below our estimate of fair value (CN¥28.34)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 601098 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Future Growth

How is China South Publishing & Media Group forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 6 analysts?

Future Growth Score

1/6

Future Growth Score 1/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

10.8%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: 601098's forecast earnings growth (10.8% per year) is above the savings rate (3.2%).

Earnings vs Market: 601098's earnings (10.8% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the CN market (24.6% per year).

High Growth Earnings: 601098's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: 601098's revenue (6.4% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the CN market (17.8% per year).

High Growth Revenue: 601098's revenue (6.4% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: 601098's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (12%).

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Past Performance

How has China South Publishing & Media Group performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

1/6

Past Performance Score 1/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

-2.5%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: 601098 has a high level of non-cash earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: 601098's current net profit margins (13.1%) are lower than last year (13.6%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: 601098's earnings have declined by 2.5% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: 601098's earnings growth over the past year (1.7%) exceeds its 5-year average (-2.5% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: 601098 earnings growth over the past year (1.7%) underperformed the Media industry 7.1%.

Return on Equity

High ROE: 601098's Return on Equity (10.6%) is considered low.

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Financial Health

How is China South Publishing & Media Group's financial position?

Financial Health Score

6/6

Financial Health Score 6/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: 601098's short term assets (CN¥20.3B) exceed its short term liabilities (CN¥7.4B).

Long Term Liabilities: 601098's short term assets (CN¥20.3B) exceed its long term liabilities (CN¥640.2M).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: 601098 is debt free.

Reducing Debt: 601098 has not had any debt for past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: 601098 has no debt, therefore it does not need to be covered by operating cash flow.

Interest Coverage: 601098 has no debt, therefore coverage of interest payments is not a concern.

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is China South Publishing & Media Group current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

5/6

Dividend Score 5/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Cash Flow Coverage

7.45%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: 601098's dividend (7.45%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the CN market (0.48%).

High Dividend: 601098's dividend (7.45%) is in the top 25% of dividend payers in the CN market (1.98%)

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: 601098's dividends per share have been stable in the past 10 years.

Growing Dividend: 601098's dividend payments have increased over the past 10 years.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: At its current payout ratio (77.5%), 601098's payments are covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: With its high cash payout ratio (214.4%), 601098's dividend payments are not well covered by cash flows.

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Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

10.8yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Shuangping Ding (58 yo)

13.67yrs

Tenure

CN¥535,200

Compensation

Mr. Shuangping Ding has been General Manager of China South Publishing & Media Group Co., Ltd since December 2008. Mr. Ding served as President of Yuelu Bookstore. He served as President of Hunan Education...

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: 601098's management team is seasoned and experienced (10.8 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: 601098's board of directors are considered experienced (5.5 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/08/03 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/08/03 00:00
Earnings	2022/03/31
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31