Yunnan Energy New Material Co., Ltd. Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

Yunnan Energy New Material Co., Ltd. (SZSE:002812) just released its latest quarterly report and things are not looking great. Results showed a clear earnings miss, with CN¥2.7b revenue coming in 9.6% lower than what the analystsexpected. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.15 missed the mark badly, arriving some 29% below what was expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Yunnan Energy New Material

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Yunnan Energy New Material's 16 analysts is for revenues of CN¥13.7b in 2025. This reflects a huge 31% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to surge 65% to CN¥1.39. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of CN¥14.4b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥1.71 in 2025. From this we can that sentiment has definitely become more bearish after the latest results, leading to lower revenue forecasts and a real cut to earnings per share estimates.

Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the CN¥33.57 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Yunnan Energy New Material analyst has a price target of CN¥55.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at CN¥14.00. We would probably assign less value to the analyst forecasts in this situation, because such a wide range of estimates could imply that the future of this business is difficult to value accurately. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Yunnan Energy New Material'shistorical trends, as the 24% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 is roughly in line with the 27% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 16% per year. So it's pretty clear that Yunnan Energy New Material is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Yunnan Energy New Material. They also downgraded Yunnan Energy New Material's revenue estimates, but industry data suggests that it is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Yunnan Energy New Material going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It is also worth noting that we have found 2 warning signs for Yunnan Energy New Material (1 shouldn't be ignored!) that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.